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Shiba inu at $0.00000862 after 30% Weekly Rally Breaks, June 2025 Descending Channel
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Whale transfers are up 111% on January 10, with large holders sending tokens into exchanges amid $332 790 in net outflows.
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Fear & Greed Index is 28 as $106.5M in 24-hour volume shows that retail remains sidelined.
Shiba Inu’s price is currently trading at $0.00000862, following a 30 percent rally during the first week of 2026. Analysts are divided on whether or not the meme coin is in recovery mode or has merely paused a long-term downtrend. The breakout happened after the price tested support at $0.00000700 late in December. However, sustainability concerns are growing as volume remains low and exchange flows are negative.
Whale Activity Increases, but Direction is Mixed
Early January saw a 111 percent increase in large SHIB transfers over $100,000, following the December whale transactions of 406 whales that moved 1,06 trillion SHIB to exchanges. The surge is a dramatic change from the quiet accumulation patterns that were seen in late 2025.
Spot flow data shows that $332,790 of net outflows occurred on January 10, indicating that some holders took advantage of the rally to exit their positions. When large holders send tokens into exchanges when prices are strong, it usually precedes distribution and not accumulation.
Approximately 62.65 per cent of SHIB is held in the top wallets. One address alone holds approximately 41 percent, valued at around $3.3 billion. This concentration means that relatively few trades are able to cause significant price swings. This increases both the upside potential and downside risks as positions adjust.
The wallet concentration creates an binary setup. SHIB’s gains could be extended if whales defend the breakout. If they continue to send tokens to exchanges the rally will become a liquidity event rather than a start of a trend.
Channel Breakout Faces EMA Resistance Cluster
Shiba Inu’s price is trading above the 20-day and 50-day EMAs today after breaking out of a descending price channel that had been in place for seven months. The breakout was marked by a spike of $0.00001020. However, the price has since pulledback to test support.
Key technical levels:
- 20-day EMA: $0.00000822
- 50-day EMA: $0.00000832
- 100-day EMA: $0.00000912
- 200-day EMA: $0.00001056
- Supertrend: $0.00000754
SHIB is located between the 50-day EMA and 100-day EMA, creating a neutral area. Buyers must reclaim $0.00000912 before they can challenge the 200-day EMA, which is $0.00001056, and confirm a trend reversal. Losing $0.00000832 invalidates the breakout and exposes the Supertrend support of $0.00000754.
The daily chart structure is improving, but the lackluster follow-through following the initial spike shows that bulls are not yet in full control. Before attempting higher resistance, the price needs to consolidate over the 50-day EMA.
Short Term Consolidation Tests Middle Bollinger Band
SHIB is consolidating near the middle Bollinger Band of $0.00000868 on the 2-hour timeframe after the sharp rally at $0.00001020. The price is now testing the level as support. The lower band at $0.00000856 provides the next floor.
The Parabolic SAR is $0.00000878 and sits just above the current price. A close above this level will turn the indicator bullish, and signal that buyers are defending breakout structure. Losing $0.00000856 will push the price towards the lower Bollinger Band, and trigger a retest to the 50-day EMA.
Burn Rate Spike Fails to Sustain Momentum
On January 1, the rate of burn increased by 10,728.80% in 24 hours. Approximately $172 million worth SHIB was sent to unrecoverable wallets. However, the subsequent days showed dramatic reversals of burn activity. Some periods recorded 17 percent declines in spite of bullish price movement.
The community-led burn mechanism remains at the center of SHIB’s strategy to deflation, even though even extreme percentage increases result in relatively modest reductions in SHIB’s massive circulating supply of 589 trillion tokens. The lack of sustained burning momentum after the January 1, spike suggests that coordinated efforts haven’t maintained intensity.
Low Volume and Fear Index Signal Caution
Despite the 30 percent rise, 24-hour volume is only $106.5 millions, which is well below the levels usually associated with trend changes that are sustainable. The Fear & Greed Index is 28. This indicates that traders are more fearful than greedy, which is usually associated with meme coin rallies.
Retailers have not joined in the movement, as evidenced by the low volume and negative sentiment. SHIB’s previous rallies, in 2024, saw volume rise above $500 million due to increased social media activity. The current breakout is lacking that confirmation.
Shiba Inu to go up?
The chart structure has improved, but the sustainability of the rally remains in question. The breakout gains credibility if SHIB reclaims $0.0000912 with increasing volume and shifts Fear & Greed Index over 50. This would initially target $0.00001056, with further upside towards $0.00001200 if the momentum builds.
If the price drops by $0.00000832, and whale outflows increase, then the channel breakout is a failed move. This exposes $0.00000754 as support, with further downside to $0.00000700 in the event of a selling surge.
Reclaiming $0.00000912 confirms the breakout. Losing $0.00000832 confirms that the rally was distribution.
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