The Ibovespa Index in Brazil traded mostly positive for most of Wednesday. This was boosted by the publication of the first Genial/Quaest Electoral Poll for 2026, and the attention of investors on US Producer Price Data.
Local outlet InfoMoney reported that the equity benchmark index rose almost instantly after the bell rang, countering the trend of decline seen on the New York market.
The global outlook is still cloudy despite signs that inflation has slowed in the US.
One Wealth Management strategist Pedro Cutulo told the media outlet that geopolitical tensions are still a major source of concern, even though price pressures may have slowed.
Further uncertainty stems from the Trump administration’s pressure on the Federal Reserve–specifically, fears of political manoeuvring designed to push Fed directors toward more market-friendly decisions.
Brazil’s stock markets had no domestic calendar to follow, so they were forced to take their cues and signals from outside events.
After the announcement, US Visa suspension gains ease
After rumours that Brazil, along with 74 other nations, had been banned from obtaining visas by the United States of America the Ibovespa dropped below 163,000 points.
The ban, according to the foreign media will start on 21 January and continue indefinitely. The ban will also apply to Russia and Iran.
This policy, which affects 75 different countries in total has caused investors to be more cautious and has halted the earlier gains in Brazilian equity.
Focus remains on the Banco Master Case and Federal Police Operations
Investors continue to be concerned about the Banco Master scandal, which has heightened caution in local markets.
The Federal Police of Brazil launched the second phase, Operation Compliance Zero, on Wednesday. It focused on suspected institutional involvement.
The second search-and-seizure operation targeted Daniel Vorcaro, a banker and his family members.
These revelations caused a surge in anxiety within the financial industry, which contributed to the intraday volatility of the Ibovespa.
Lula is leading in the polls, but by a narrow margin
According to a survey conducted by Genial/Quaest on Wednesday, Luiz inacio Lula Da Silva has 45% of the vote intentions for a possible second round runoff with Flavio Bosonaro. He trails behind at 38%.
The previous poll, published on December 16, showed Bolsonaro with 36% and Lula with 46%.
Ibovespa reached a new record of 163,000 after the release of the poll.
Lula is 44% ahead of Sao Paulo governor Tarcisio de Freitas in a hypothetical contest.
The race is tightening up. In the previous survey, Lula scored one point less, while Tarcisio jumped from 35%, to 39%.
Data also shows a decline in rejection rates of both Tarcisio Bolsonaro and Flavio.
Bruno Takeo was a Potenza Capital strategist quoted as saying Tarcisio has become more competitive.
Takeo says that even though the Governor is not officially running for office, and likely will never do so, his improving rejection rates make him an impressive contender.
This article Brazil’s Ibovespa increases on US data and polls as global risks weigh first appeared on The ICD
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