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XRP is still trapped in a descending slant, with resistance to the trend at $2.08.
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The price is stabilizing at $1.85 but tests have shown that buyers are not aggressive, but defensive.
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The 1 billion XRP escrow release on January 1 increases the short-term liquidity risk.
After another subdued trading session, XRP is currently trading near $1.87. The price remains just above the short-term support level as the broader momentum continues to be weak. The market is at an inflection, caught between a persistent downward trend on higher timeframes as well as a major supply event planned for early January.
Price Holds Range as Downtrend Continues
On the daily chart, XRP is still trapped inside a descending trend channel that has guided the price lower since October’s peak. Each attempt to recover has failed below upper boundary, reinforcing pattern of lower highs. The Supertrend is still red at $2.08, indicating that the trend control hasn’t shifted back to buyers.
The price is stabilizing around the rising trendline support, which is between $1.85 and $1.87. This area has served as a temporary floor since late December, preventing further breakdown. However, repeated tests with no strong rebound suggest that buyers are more defensive than aggressive.
The structure is more favorable to sellers as long as XRP is below the descending resistance level and Supertrend.
Short-Term Momentum Shows Stabilization, Not Strength
Lower timeframes provide a more balanced view. On the 1-hour chart XRP is in a tight range of consolidation between $1.84 to $1.90. RSI is near the upper 50s. This indicates stabilization following the earlier selloff, but not a clear shift in momentum. MACD is still slightly positive, but histogram strength remains modest.
This behavior indicates absorption, not accumulation. The sellers are no longer pushing aggressively but the buyers are still not willing to chase higher prices. This balance is often a precursor to a larger movement, especially when macro catalysts are approaching.
The January Escrow Unlock adds to the supply overhang
This catalyst will arrive on January 1, when Ripple plans to release 1 billion XRP out of escrow. This is the first release scheduled for 2026, and it immediately brings supply dynamics into focus.
Ripple does not release the full amount unlocked into circulation. In recent months, 60% to 80% of each unlock was returned to escrow. In December 2025, approximately 70% of the unlocked coins were re-locked. Only a small portion was retained for possible distribution.
Even so, at current prices, the nominal amount of the unlock is still significant. Traders react more to the behavior on-chain following the release than to the headline amount. Large transfers to exchanges and unusual wallet movements can often determine short-term price reaction, even if their long-term impact is limited.
The timing of the unlock is more sensitive because XRP is already in a fragile position.
The upcoming release of escrow coincides also with renewed attention to regulatory developments. The CLARITY act, which was confirmed for January, will introduce clearer rules on how banks and financial institutions may engage with digital assets including XRP.
This creates a split story. On the one hand, regulatory clarity is supportive of institutional adoption and longer-term use cases. On the other hand, short-term supply events may cause price pressure if liquidity is thin.
Outlook. Will XRP go up?
XRP is compressed between technical resistance, and a major supply.
- Bullish case :Price maintains above $1.85, and reclaims 2.00 with expanding volume. A close above $2.08 will break the descending structure, and allow room for $2.40.
- Bearish Case: A close below $1.85 on a daily basis confirms the failure of support before the escrow is released. This scenario exposes $1.77 as the first target, followed by $1.60 if there is a build-up of selling pressure.
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