-
A falling US dollar and record global liquidity are creating a bullish macro-setup for Bitcoin
-
On chain data shows that a large number of long-term Bitcoin holders do not sell their Bitcoin
-
Due to a convergence of factors, analysts have set price targets as high as $135,000
Market conditions are ripe for a new surge as the United States dollar falls to a three year low and long-term investors tighten their grip on Bitcoin supply. Analysts say that Bitcoin is holding strong above the $107,000 level, and that a convergence of macroeconomic weakness with strong on-chain fundamentals could fuel a rally towards $135,000 and even beyond.
CoinMarketCap data indicates that Bitcoin is trading at or above $107K, holding companies above $100K despite a convergence of macroeconomic weaknesses and an unprecedented long-term hold behavior.
Dollar Weakness and Liquidity Surging
Crypto analyst Lark Davis says that the US Dollar Index has just fallen to a three year low, down 11% for the entire year. Simultaneously the global M2 money supply, which is the total liquidity of the economy, has reached new all-time highs.
This environment of abundant liquidity, coupled with a weaker dollar, has historically been a major driver for Bitcoin rallies. Simply put: More money, lower fiat values, and a higher appetite for alternative store of value.
Davis posted cryptically, “You know what will happen next,” hinting at Bitcoin’s explosive growth in similar conditions.
Long-term holders are locking in.
Darkfost, an on-chain analyst, shared data that showed a historic increase in the supply of long-term-held (LTH) Bitcoins — coins that haven’t changed in over six months. These holdings have been classified as LTH in the $95,000 to $107,000 range. This is a significant psychological level.
RelatedMichael Saylor calls Bitcoin a “Steel Vessel”, as Fiat and Gold Sinks: Inside His $500M Shift
Darkfost noted that “LTH” is better understood as “coin ages” than addresses.
The shift in behavior confirms the fact that a large group of investors do not plan to sell Bitcoin, even though it is flirting with all-time highs.
Wall Street’s risk-on sentiment boosts crypto case
The S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq composite futures have also reached record highs. The S&P has risen by 23% in the last four months, surpassing 6,145 points. Investor sentiment has improved dramatically due to a ceasefire between Israel, Iran, and easing trade tensions.
Bitcoin has historically benefited when markets become more risky.
As per the chart above, Bitcoin remains in a strong uptrend on the weekly timeframe as Bollinger Bands (BB) show that BTC is pressing against the upper band with expanding volatility–typically a signal of a continuation pattern rather than reversal.
Related:Arthur Hayes’s Views on Stablecoins and Bitcoin’s Next Peak
The On-Balance volume (OBV), which is 16.28M, indicates that there is still a strong buying pressure at higher prices. This is a classic bullish sign.
This site is for entertainment only. Click here to read more
