Barry Callebaut – a Swiss chocolatier – lowered their annual volume sales forecast Thursday because of “unprecedented fluctuations” in cocoa beans prices.
Reuters reported that this development caused a dramatic drop in shares of the company, down nearly 20% and on course for its largest ever one-day loss.
Nestle is the world’s biggest chocolate maker and a key supplier of cocoa to major food manufacturers such as Nestle. Nestle makes KitKat. The company has issued a forecast that predicts a decrease in its sales volume.
Falling volumes
According to the company, the sales volume of cocoa for the fiscal year that ends on August 31, will decline by a mid-single-digit percentage.
The projection showed a possible shift on the cocoa markets, which could impact both the chocolateier as well as the wider food industry.
Initially, the company predicted a slight decrease in volume sales. It was estimated to fall in the range of low single digit percent.
The current market conditions were a major influence on this projection, especially the extraordinarily high cost of raw materials.
Prices were high and expected to affect consumer buying power, which would impact sales.
The Reuters article quoted Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Jon Cox as saying, “The company’s short-term pain is greater than anticipated due to the unprecedented cocoa spike and volatility.”
Cox said that the drop in cocoa price should increase chocolate demand, and relieve pressure on Barry Callebaut’s financials and balance sheet.
Cocoa prices
Cocoa Futures traded in London are priced currently at around 6,096 Pounds ($7,839.5 per metric ton).
The decrease is significant compared to the high for the year of 9290 pounds, which was reached in January.
The “perfect storm” that has affected cocoa growers in Western Africa (which accounts for 70% of global cocoa production) is responsible for this price decline.
The cocoa industry has been plagued by insufficient planning, resource allocation and climate change.
The climate change in Western Africa has had an impact that is profound. Climate change has led to a decrease in yields and increased pressure from pests and diseases.
Farmers are finding it more difficult to produce cocoa consistently and profitably due to environmental challenges.
In addition, the lack of planning and investing in sustainable farming methods has left this industry susceptible to climate shifts.
The farmers have not had access to resources or support to help them adapt to climate changes and reduce their impact.
Sales decline
Barry Callebaut’s sales volume decreased by 4.7% to 1,08 million tonnes in the six-month period ending in August 2025.
The company’s consensus provided by the analysts predicted a slightly lower figure of 1,11 million tonnes.
Ingredients from the company are used in 25 percent of all chocolate and cocoa consumed worldwide.
The company confirmed its forecast of an increase by double digits in the recurring EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) in constant currencies for this year. The company’s first-half earnings fell by 2.9% to 329,6 million Swiss Francs (US$386.0 million).
According to the company, it still plans on achieving annual savings of 250 million Swiss francs under its transformation plan.
Due to a “disruptive” environment, the savings from “BC Next Level”, will appear in the earnings 12 months after expected.
This article Chocolate giant Barry Callebaut’s sales fall as cocoa costs soar first appeared on ICD
