Prices have soared due to a dramatic drop in cocoa production in West Africa, caused by bad weather and diseases. This has put pressure on European chocolatiers and raised prices for chocolate consumers around the world.
Statista’s report, however, shows that despite this scenario, after three years of deficits the tide is finally turning.
The International Cocoa Organisation, (ICCO), forecast an excess of 2024/2025 for the harvest.
This could signal a major shift in the cocoa market globally, reducing pressure both on farmers and buyers.
Why has the price of cocoa soared?
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A double blow was delivered to the 2023/2024 harvest of cocoa. The first was a rainy season that affected the harvests of important West African regions.
A viral disease called the swollen-shoot virus caused havoc to crops.
Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana and the two world’s largest cocoa producers were particularly affected.
About half the cocoa produced in the world comes from these two countries.
The cocoa price reached a multi-year high, causing a disruption in the global chocolate supply chain.
The brunt of these consequences fell on European companies that import and process most of the cocoa in the world. The price of groceries was also increased.
West Africa is the hub of global supply
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Africa produces most of the cocoa in the world.
Four West African countries make up about 65% (or more) of the global cocoa crop: Cote d’Ivoire (38%) Ghana (12%) Nigeria (7%) and Cameroon (7%)
West Africa is the center of the production of cocoa, which accounts for 70%.
Africa produced more than 3.1 million tons of cocoa beans during the season 2023/2024.
Cote d’Ivoire produced over 1.8 millions tons of cocoa, making it the top producer in the world.
Due to its pivotal position in the global cocoa industry, this region is a zone with high impact and high risk. The entire world is affected by harvest failures in this region.
South America is the second largest source of cocoa. Ecuador produces 10% of the total global cocoa, while Brazil contributes about 4%.
The figures are not enough to cover the West African shortages during low-harvest years.
Beans become billions
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Once harvested, cocoa beans are usually processed close to their origin or at major import hubs. The Netherlands and Cote d’Ivoire produce the most cocoa in the world.
In 2022/23 Cote d’Ivoire produced over 793,000 tonnes, while Europe processed almost 1.4 million in 2023.
Mars Wrigley Confectionery topped the global confectionery market in terms of sales net, with $22 Billion.
Ferrero Group, and Mondelez combined generated over $10 billion. This shows the size and competitiveness in the chocolate industry.
What is the future of cocoa production in the world?
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The ICCO’s latest estimate of a surplus in 2024/2025 encourages cautious optimism.
If harvesting goes according to plan, the global supply may stabilise. Prices could begin to return to normal levels.
After a year of unpredictability in costs and supply-chain turmoil, this would be a welcome development for European chocolatiers.
Experts warn that the cocoa industry is still weak. Climate change, diseases, and disruptions in the supply chain continue to threaten stability.
Diversifying the sourcing of products and investing in sustainable farming practices can be crucial to protecting the industry from future shocks.
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