Bitcoin has been stuck in an extremely tight range ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision this week. Several analysts have flagged a possible Wyckoff spring that could drive prices down to $80,000 or lower before the momentum is restored.
US Institutions continue to influence flows and positions, while the demand for safe haven assets is on the rise and macro-uncertainty increases.
Bitcoin ranges as risk of event builds
Wintermute and TradingView, cited by Cointelegraph, reported that Bitcoin was trading defensively at $88,000. After a rise to $88,315, it remained trapped within a range of $85,000 to $94,000 for 60 days.
Keith Alan, of Material Indicators, said that a daily “Trend Precognition Signal” indicates a high likelihood Bitcoin won’t revisit its low from yesterday after the brief drop below $87,000 on Monday.
According to his blog post, cited by Cointelegraph, he added that the closing daily must be above the opening 2026 near $87,000 for it to have strength.
Order books and momentum point towards stabilization rather than breakout
Arab Chain, in an article for Quicktake, wrote that Binance’s data on CryptoQuant shows a daily price movement of approximately $1676 and a momentum of 1.9%. This is a signal of “quiet correction” following selling pressure, rather than of a bullish surge.
The order-book suggests a period of “anticipation” and not an impending breakout.
According to Cointelegraph, Trader MartyParty used Wyckoff’s analysis to predict a possible “spring” which could bring BTC down to $80,000, before rebounding. He timed it to coincide with this week’s macro-events.
ETFs turn to the outflows as US flows increase
Wintermute stated that US counterparties were net sellers. A persistent Coinbase Discount pointed to the domestic pressure. European accounts, however, are marginal buyers, and Asia, neutral.
In its latest update, the firm noted that “ETFs are what drive this market’s momentum; when they disappear, it results in choppy and directionless prices.”
Cryptonews reports that US Bitcoin ETFs experienced their biggest weekly outflow last week since February 2025, reversed the large inflows which accompanied January’s short push towards $97,000.
Who sells and who does not?
The metrics of the on-chain indicate that profit taking is more likely than capitulation.
CryptoQuant’s Miners’ Position Index was near -1,5, indicating that miners were selling less after they monetized inventory between $110,000 and $120,000.
According to a report, whale exchange ratios have increased, while deposits are still well below previous spikes. This suggests a tactical distribution.
Macro background, from Fed to Dalio’s warning
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, cited by Cointelegraph, the Federal Reserve will set policy on Wednesday. Rate cuts are expected below 3%.
Cryptonews reported that earnings from Microsoft, Meta and Tesla as well as a 25% tariff threat to South Korea adds risk.
Ray Dalio, in his Big Cycle Framework, warned that the US was “on the verge” of moving from Stage 5 systemic breakdown to Stage 6 pre-breakdown. He cited unsustainable debts and social conflicts.
In a lengthy essay, he suggested that “capital control” and “reserve freezing” may be seen in later stages.
According to Cryptonews, investors have favored the traditional safe-havens as gold and silver prices rose, with both registering record highs.
How to break the deadlock
Wintermute stated that “60 days of compression”, meeting heavy risk, suggests “something has to give”. He identified $85,000 as the key support as well as an ETF flow reverse as being needed in order to clear mid-$90k.
B2 Ventures Arthur Azizov said to Cryptonews Bitcoin is still a risky asset. The “basecase” consolidation scenario holds the 85,000-88,00 dollar range.
Watching the price levels and snapshot of prices
Bitcoin was trading at $88,553 when Asia opened today. It then rose by 1.4%, but fell back to $88,000. According to Cryptonews, the total crypto-market cap was $3.06 trillion today, a decrease of 0.18% from yesterday.
- Materials Indicators flags $87,500 as the daily closing level.
- Wintermute receives $85,000 in critical support.
- MartyParty: Wyckoff spring risk is below $80,000
- ETF flows, Coinbase Premium for Directional Cues
- Momentum of 1.93% indicates stabilization and not breakout
Positioning cautiously and with catalysts in place, the Fed’s tones and ETF demand will likely determine a decision. Range discipline and paying close attention to the flow signals looks prudent until then.
The post Bitcoin Faces Fed Test as Analysts Warn of Possible Dip Below $80,000 could be updated as new information unfolds.
