SovEcon is a respected agricultural consulting firm that has significantly increased its forecast of Russian wheat exports in the marketing year 2025-2026.
This projection is now 1.1 million tons higher, bringing total exports up to 46.7 mmt.
The revised number represents an important acceleration of Russia as the world’s largest wheat exporter.
The forecast for 45.7 mmt in 2024-25 is significantly higher than 40.8 mmt that was exported during the previous season.
It also comfortably exceeds the average five-year export volume (42.2 mmt), highlighting a possible shift towards a higher baseline for exports.
Records-setting Outlook
Two key market factors are the primary drivers of the decision to increase the forecast.
First, the exports have been very strong in recent months. This is a sign of robust demand, and efficient logistics.
Secondly, the revision is supported by relatively high official crop figures released by government agencies, suggesting a larger-than-anticipated harvest and ample supply for the export market.
SovEcon’s outlook for 2025-26 has been revised to take into account the increased export potential due to a combination of favourable data on official supply and strong performance in the market.
Exports surged recently and the global drivers
In recent months, Russian wheat exports have soared to new heights.
According to the consultancy, December’s shipments totaled 4.2 mmt. This is the highest monthly volume in eight years.
The performance was even better in November when Russian wheat exports reached a monthly record of 5.2 million tonnes.
The significant increase in Russian exports is a reflection of the country’s growing dominance on the world wheat market. This position has been boosted by an abundant domestic crop and low prices, which have impacted international commodity flow and price.
In the next few months, shipments are expected to remain high due to strong demand from importers.
Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr purchased 0.7 mmt wheat late in December. A significant part of the grain is likely to have come from Russia.
GFSA, the Saudi Arabian grain exporting agency, also made a large purchase in January, acquiring 0.9 mmt, including grains from the Black Sea area.
A relatively large supply of wheat in Russia has led to an upward revision of the forecast.
SovEcon reported that preliminary data released by Rosstat in December put the harvest for 2025 at 91.4 mmt. This is higher than most estimates on the market, which were between 88.0 and 89.0mmt.
Anticipating a decline
SovEcon estimated that the 2025 production of wheat would be 88.8 million metric tons.
The consultancy stated that “a 20 mmt limit on major grain exports will come into effect mid-February. However, we do not believe it will have a material impact on shipments.”
Estimates of wheat exports in the period between mid-February and July, during which quotas are applicable, is 16 mmt.
The initial forecast for 2026-2027 is 39.6 million tonnes of wheat, a reduction of 6.1 mmt from current estimates.
The expected decrease in shipments can be attributed to a tighter supply following a small harvest. SovEcon estimates the wheat production in 2026 at 83.8 million tonnes.
A stagnant and zero growth rate of livestock is expected to keep the domestic consumption the same for the coming season.
In the next few months we anticipate an increase in exports. We do not expect a major acceleration of exports due to the fact that many stocks are located in areas far away from those regions,” Andrey Sizov said, managing director of SovEcon.
Other factors that limit exports include the strong ruble, and stable prices for exports.
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