According to the most recent SovEcon Report, Russia completed its winter crop sowing campaign for 2026, however, the area planted continues to decrease.
The agricultural consultancy reported that the winter wheat planted area totaled 16.1 million ha as of mid December.
This figure represents a small decrease from 16,2 million hectares that were planted in the previous year, and a more significant drop from 16.9 million planted two years earlier.
In December 2021 the area of winter wheat in Russia reached its maximum, with 17.8 millions hectares.
This expansionary trend was reversed soon after.
This was due to a decrease in profitability for grain farmers.
SovEcon stated that the weakening financial prospects were largely due to government decision to implement wheat export taxes.
Planting area decreases
SovEcon anticipates that the area planted to spring wheat will continue its downward trend.
According to the firm, planted areas for 2019 will total approximately 10,7 million hectares.
Comparing this figure to recent data, it is clear that the number has decreased.
The spring wheat crop area was 11.1 million ha in the previous season. In comparison, it had been 12.3 millions hectares the year before.
The consistent decline in spring wheat production, which has gone from 12,3 to 11,1 million, and is now forecasted at 10,7 million, indicates a shift structural or a response to the current market and agriculture conditions, both of which are discouraging producers to cultivate it.
This decline can be attributed to a variety of factors, including changing weather patterns that impact planting, changes in the profitability of competing crops or governmental policy.
Financial decline and competitive gains
Profitability in the Russian grain industry continues to fall.
SovEcon’s estimates show that the pre-tax revenue for grain producers will reach 69 billion Rubles from January to September 2025. This is a substantial drop from the 93 billion Rubbles recorded in the year before, as well as a considerable decrease compared to the 181 Billion rubles reported in 2021. (USDRUB =80).
The decline in the financial position of farmers began after 2021, when export taxes were implemented.
In contrast, some of Russia’s rivals have also increased the wheat acres.
According to the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine had 4.7 million ha of winter wheat as of mid December.
The previous year, 4.4 millions hectares were planted. This is a record high for the past five years.
According to the French Agriculture Ministry, the area of winter wheat has increased from 4.7 million ha last year.
The 2026 Outlook
Weather conditions adversely affected Russia’s winter crop sowing campaign in 2026.
The heavy rains slowed down planting significantly throughout the entire season. This led to an average year-over-year delay of 0.5 millions hectares.
In October, the return of near-normal rainfall levels to European Russia facilitated an increase in planting.
SovEcon predicts that the total area of wheat in Russia will decrease to 26.9 millions hectares by 2026.
The average yield is expected to decrease slightly, from 3.3 to 3.0 metric tons/hectare.
It is expected that the wheat crop for 2026 will be around 83.8 millions metric tonnes, a decrease from this year’s output of about 88.8million metric ton.
As new information becomes available, this post Russia’s Wheat Planting Area Shrinks in 2026 due to Profitability Declines may be updated.
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