Mexico’s February 2026 trade balance was a deficit of $463 millions, which reversed the surplus of $1.65 billion from the prior year. This exceeded analysts’ expectations for a surplus $1.2 billion.
The unexpected decline was due to a significant increase in imports. This reflected an increased demand at home and the recovery of industrial activity.
The total value of imports has increased by 20.8% over the past year, to reach $57.31 billion.
The increase was driven by an increase of 22.6% in purchases other than oil.
The surge in energy consumption and production was caused more by the domestic needs than any external demand.
Imports of intermediate goods other than oil increased by 29.5%, highlighting the strong demand for these inputs.
Imports of consumer goods, however, increased by 5.5%. This suggests that household consumption is still steady despite the global unpredictability.
As a result, the overall balance of trade ended up in deficit because the imports were stronger than the gains made on the export side.
Export growth remains strong but uneven
Exports also grew strongly in February with a growth of 15.8% over the previous year, reaching $56,85 billion, thanks to the strong performance by non-oil industries.
Exports of non-oil products increased by 17.5%, mainly due to significant increases in several important categories.
Mining products saw the strongest increase in exports, increasing by 107.6%. This was due to favorable conditions on global commodity markets as well as increased demand from abroad.
The export of manufactured goods increased simultaneously by 17.1%, confirming Mexico as an important industrial exporter.
Not all sectors had similar export performances.
Exports of agricultural products fell by 12 %.
The automotive industry is one of Mexico’s main exporters and has been under stress.
Exports of automobiles fell by 3.4% as a result of shipments to Mexico’s biggest trading partner, United States.
The overseas sales of oil also dropped by 24.2%.
External performance is anchored by non-oil exports
Mexico’s export sector, particularly in the non-oil segment, remained robust despite a headline deficit.
Total non-oil imports increased rapidly due to the demand on important markets.
The continued strength of the bilateral trade relationship is highlighted by the 15.9% rise in the number of shipments going to the US.
Exports to foreign markets have increased 26.4% in the same time period, showing that Mexico is diversifying its export markets.
The growth of the non-oil sector is a sign that it has become more important in maintaining Mexico’s performance on trade despite difficulties faced by established industries like automotive and oil.
The dynamics of trade reflects both domestic and international pressures
A number of internal and external forces have led to the current deficit.
Imports of consumer goods and intermediate goods are increasing, which indicates a higher level of domestic production and demand.
Export performance was uneven, with a drop in automobile and oil shipments being the most notable.
The export growth was strong but not enough to offset the rapid increase in imports.
The data show that the impact of changes in demand at home and exports by sector are more significant on Mexico’s balance of trade.
Exports of non-oil products are strong. This is encouraging. However, whether the export growth will be able to keep pace with the growing demand for imports in the next few months will determine how the balance looks.
As new information becomes available, this post Mexico swings into deficit as import growth outpaces the export growth could be updated.
