Long ago, the world was concerned about overpopulation and how too many people were straining Earth’s resources.
Recently, however, there has been a change in the tone of this conversation.
The birth rate is falling in countries that were once thought to be the source of population explosions like India and Indonesia.
The fear of an overpopulated world has replaced the old perception that there was a population bomb ticking.
The world is approaching its peak population
Jennifer Sciubba is a demographer and political leader of the Population Reference Bureau. She spoke to Bloomberg about the fact that the birth rate in many countries has been declining, but this does not mean that the world population peaked.
The UN estimates that the population of the planet will reach 10.3 billion by 2080 before it starts to decline.
Signs of change can be seen. As an example, in the US, 40 counties now see their population shrinking–something which was once rare.
Sciubba says that the shift in forecasting population is relatively new.
Years ago, the fertility rate was declining in countries with higher incomes. Now, the pattern is global.
Everywhere, people are reconsidering the ideal size of a family.
The rising cost and increasing availability of contraception have all played an important role in the decline of large families.
Real World Impact
Sciubba points out that the population changes are not a crisis of one size fits all. They bring with them a complex mix and challenges in many ways.
The aging population is one of the most pressing issues. Many countries have “pay as you go” pensions, and fewer people are asked to help support an increasing number of retired persons.
This puts a lot of pressure on the welfare systems that were not designed to deal with such an lopsided population.
During the same period, government is being pushed in many directions. Some governments are rushing to fix housing shortages, but they will soon be worried about empty schools or excess infrastructure.
This shift forces us to rethink everything, from the location of our homes to where we invest in education or long-term care.
Sciubba, who previously advised the US Department of Defense about demographics issues, also understands political ripple effects.
The young population of a country can make it more susceptible to instability and unrest, while the older populations are pushed into finding new methods to keep their society together and grow their economy as family and workplace structures change.
More than just a headcount
Sciubba believes that throwing money at a problem is rarely effective.
South Korea, for example, has offered all sorts of incentives, including cash bonuses, childcare subsidies, and even housing assistance, but it’s not made a difference.
It still has one of the lowest birth rates in the world. Immigration is also often cited as a possible solution. But that too can be complicated. Yes, it can be helpful, but there’s no magic solution.
It is often difficult to overcome political opposition, tensions cultural, or concerns over identity and/or jobs.
It’s time to reconsider what our goals are.
This means creating systems to support the people, such as affordable childcare, good healthcare and help for older adults.
This also includes making it easier to continue working if you want, without having to force everyone to stay in the workforce until they are 70 years old to maintain pensions.
Sciubba says that we must stop using population growth to measure success.
It may be better to have a smaller society that is healthier and more resilient than if it were larger.
As new information becomes available, this post: The New Global Demographic Challenge: Not Too Many But Too Few may be updated.
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