Brazil’s Industrial Production rose by 1.8% between December 2025 and January 2026, with positive results in seven out of fifteen places surveyed.
Para has recorded the largest gains.
The declines were concentrated in Rio Grande do Sul and Espirito Santo, while the increases occurred in Minas Gerais, Bahia, and Sao Paulo.
Overall, the indicators showed a mix of regional trends and signs that the momentum was slowing down in several areas of the country despite the month-to-month increase.
Growth in the North and Southeast states is a major factor for regional growth
Para’s production grew the most in January with an 8.6% increase after four months of declining output.
Minas Gerais, Bahia and Sao Paulo all saw growth between 3.0% and 3.2%, with Sao Paolo following closely behind at 3.5%.
Amazonas grew by 1,9%. The Northeast Region increased by 2,0%. Parana posted a growth of 1.5%.
The main regions that are growing faster than national average monthly growth of 1.8%.
The growth of several industrial centres, despite the unevenness across the nation, contributed to the national overall increase.
Reduced in the coastal and Southern area
Some regions have seen an increase in their industrial production, while others saw a decline.
Rio Grande do Sul saw the biggest drop in production, falling by 4.5%. Ceara saw a drop of 2,5% in production, while Espirito Santo recorded a decline of 4.3%.
Both Rio Grande do Sul (Rio Grande do Sul) and Espirito do Santo (Espirito do Sul) saw a decline in production for a second month.
Rio Grande do Sul suffered a loss of 5.7% over the period of two months, while Espirito Santo saw a drop of 10.0%.
During the first months of 2026, additional negative results have been observed in Pernambuco, Santa Catarina, Goias, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso, and Rio de Janeiro.
The three-month average shows a downward trend
The industry’s three-month average moving index, which is a measure of the overall performance in the sector over a period of 3 months, fell 0.1% from the month before to the quarter ending January 2026.
The trend started in October 2025.
The three-month moving mean recorded negative results at the regional level in 11 of 15 locations.
Goias, Amazonas, Santa Catarina, Bahia, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Espirito-Santo all saw the steepest drops.
Mato Grosso recorded the highest growth rate of 1,6%, in January 2026.
Limitation of the growth in annual comparison
Brazil’s Industrial Sector grew modestly by 0.2%, non-seasonally corrected in January 2026 as compared to January 2025.
Eight of the 18 locations that were surveyed saw an increase in production during this time period.
Pernambuco, and Espirito Santo recorded the largest increases. Pernambuco registered a growth of 27.7%, and Espirito Santo grew by 14.5%.
Pernambuco’s expansion was driven primarily by petroleum products, biofuels and coke. Other industries that were also important included electrical materials, machinery, equipment, metallurgy and food manufacturing.
The metallurgical, extractive and mining industries have performed better in Espirito-Santo.
Other regions posting growth included Mato Grosso do Sul (8.7%), Maranhao (6.2%), Rio de Janeiro (5.6%), Mato Grosso (5.2%), Minas Gerais (2.7%) and Para (0.5%).
Parana’s production remained the same as it was in January 2025.
Sharp declines in several states
Although some areas saw positive results, others experienced contractions that were significant compared to the same period a year ago.
Rio Grande do Norte saw the biggest drop in production, falling by 24.9%. Bahia was next with a drop of 10.3%.
Rio Grande do Norte’s contraction is mainly due to lower coke production, petroleum products, and biofuels.
The decline in Bahia was due to a weakening of production, particularly for sectors such as coke, petroleum, biofuels and machinery, equipment, and electrical materials.
Other negative results have been recorded in Ceara, Amazonas, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Goias, Sao Paulo, and Northeast Region.
The 12-month indicator shows a slowing of the momentum
Brazil’s industry sector has grown by 0.5% in the past 12 months, according to January 2026.
The indicator was still positive but showed less momentum than in previous months.
Eight of the 18 locations that were surveyed recorded positive results in the index for a 12-month period.
Ten regions, however, showed a lower performance than December 2025.
Santa Catarina’s decline from 3.2% down to 2.0% was the biggest, followed by Rio Grande do Sul, which went from 2.3% up to 1.2%.
Amazonas went from a 0.1% rate to a -0.4%. Ceara went from a -0.7% rate to a -1.3% and Rio Grande do Norte, from -11.8% rates to -12.5%.
Several regions have shown improvement from December 2025 to January 2026.
Pernambuco improved from -3.8% down to 0.6%. Espirito Santo grew from 11.6% up to 13.6%. Maranhao went from -5.3% down to -3.9%. Mato Grosso do Sul increased from -12.8% back to -12.1%. Rio de Janeiro jumped from 5.1% upwards to 5.7%.
Why are there still so many falling states? This post may change as new information becomes available
