The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics released data on Tuesday that showed Brazil’s economy had a minimal increase in its fourth quarter, but finished 2025 in a solid growth year as the extractive industries and agricultural offset the decline in consumption at home.
IBGE reports that the GDP increased by 1.8% in comparison to the same quarter a year ago and by 0.1% in comparison with the prior quarter.
The statistics office reported that the GDP for 2012 increased by 2,3%, or $12.7 trillion (at current prices).
According to the market, this quarter’s result met expectations. According to a Reuters poll, the annual growth rate was forecast at 1.8% with a quarterly growth rate of 0.1%.
Second half slowdown
The data for the fourth quarter confirms a decline in momentum during the second half.
After growing by 1.5% and 0.3% respectively in the first and second quarters, the economy stagnated during the third.
IBGE’s revised third-quarter estimate for growth of 0.1% reflects a flat performance.
The economy grew moderately and did not contract despite the economic slowdown.
The GDP per capita is expected to increase by 1.9% between 2024 and 2025, reaching 59.687.49 Reais.
Rebeca Palis is the coordinator for national accounts at IBGE. She says that agriculture, extractive industry, communication and information, and service activities will account for 72 percent of value-added growth by 2025.
Palis stated that Brazil’s contractionary monetary policies, which placed more pressure on sectors sensitive to interest rates, had a lesser impact on the industries in question.
Agriculture is the main driver of growth
Agriculture was the sector that performed best in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 11.7%.
According to IBGE, the major reasons for the rise in production are the productivity gains and higher yields of important crops. These include maize (up 23,6%) and soyabeans (up 14,6%).
In 2025, both hit all-time highs. Livestock farming also improved the performance of this industry.
The industry grew by 1.4%, primarily due to oil and gas production.
Extractive industries’ added value will increase by 8.6% in 2025 as the result of increased production within the energy sector.
Construction also saw an increase of 0.5% throughout the entire year.
Not all industrial sectors performed well. Manufacturing Industries, which includes activities related to water, waste, sewage and electricity, decreased by 0.2%.
The services continue to be strong
Brazil’s economic growth is driven by its services sector. It is expected to grow 1.8% across major industries in 2025.
Information and communications services grew by 6.5%, while financial and insurance services grew by 2.9%.
Transportation, storage and postal services grew 2.1%, while real estate and other service activities each increased by 2.0%.
The growth in the public administration, defense, health and education sectors was 0.5%.
IBGE reports that improvements on the labor market, increased credit availability and income transfers from the government have contributed to an increase of 1.3% in consumption by households compared to 2024.
This was a marked slowdown on the 5,1% recorded growth in 2024. It reflects the adverse effects of the tighter monetary policies.
The government consumption is expected to increase by 2,1% between 2025 and 2025.
The ICD published the following article: Brazil’s Economy Edges Up 0.1% In Q4
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