After trading activities tied to Iran airstrikes, and reports of the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have faced backlash.
Tarek Mnsour, CEO of Kalshi, defended his platform’s treatment of a trade centered around whether Khamenei will be ousted as Supreme Leader. He stressed that Kalshi does not permit markets to settle on the death or a person.
We don’t include markets that directly involve death. We design rules that prevent anyone from making money from the death of a market participant. This is exactly what we have done here .”
Mansour said that the company settled the market according to its own rules at the price of the last trade before death. The firm also reimbursed any fees related to the market. The company reimburses users who open positions after the time reported of the death the difference in price between the purchase price they paid and the price at which the position was last traded before the event.
Mansour stated that the platform would work on improving how it displays market rules and disclosures.
Bubblemaps, a blockchain analysis account, claimed that six insiders had generated $1.2 million by betting on an American strike against Iran. This post claims that the wallets had been funded in less than 24 hours and “yes” wagers placed hours before the attack. The target date was February 28.
These allegations have fuelled a debate about transparency and fairness of geopolitical predictions markets.
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As new information becomes available, this post Kalshi and Polymarket’s ‘Death Carveout Triggers Controversy and Insider Trading allegations Related to Iran Airstrikes’ may be updated.
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