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XRP is now below its average cost basis for holders, which has triggered loss-driven pressure to sell.
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The sentiment is weighed down by macro-uncertainty and the fading expectations of an early rate cut.
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Institutional Demand Remains Resilient, With ETF Flows Avoiding Recent Outflows
XRP is currently trading at $1.35. This is down 2.4% over the past 24 hour as macroeconomic uncertainty and bearish investor sentiment continue weighing on the market. Despite the pullback in institutional demand indicators, they remain relatively stable and prevent a sharper drop.
Below is a structured view of what is driving XRP’s price and what investors will be watching next.
Current Market Situation: XRP falls below Holder Cost Basis
Recent on-chain data indicates that XRP is in a stress stage, which is common during late-stage corrections. Glassnode, an analytics firm, reports that XRP is now below its aggregate holder’s cost basis. This means many investors are holding XRP at a loss.
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XRP’s spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has dropped from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96. This indicates that many transactions are executed at a loss.
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The realized price is estimated at $1.48. This is now above the current price on the market, confirming a negative return for average holders.
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Early 2022 saw similar on-chain structures, but this was a period of consolidation rather than a rapid rebound.
In the past, such conditions have often led to capitulation, loss realisation, and gradual stabilization rather than a rapid price recovery.
Related XRP Risks Drop To $1.28 As Analysts Flag Weak Structure
ETF Flows Show Institutional Resistance
While retail sentiment is still weak, institutional demand is relatively stable.
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U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded zero net flow on Feb. 12 avoiding outflows an eighth consecutive session.
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Since launch, XRP ETFs have seen cumulative inflows of about $1.23 Billion. This is a significant improvement over Bitcoin ETF flows, which have been dominated by net outflows.
Stable ETF flows may indicate that institutional investors are not exiting positions, but rather holding them. This could be limiting volatility on the downside.
Catalysts To Watch In The Near Term
XRP could be influenced by several events in the short term:
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U.S. CPI data may influence Fed policy expectations
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Spot ETF flows, especially if strong inflows are resumed.
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Cross-border payments: regulatory and institutional adoption developments
- Possible unwinding of the yen carry trade and broader liquidity shifts due to global interest rate changes.
What’s Next?
In the short term, XRP could see another dip before a bottom is formed. Analysts expect that the next support area will be around $1.31-$1.26, and a further fallback to $1.19 is possible if the selling pressure continues. $1.39-$1.44 will remain the immediate resistance zone after the recent rejection.
Market-moving events, such as upcoming data on inflation, could cause short-term volatility. However, a sustained recovery would require XRP breaking and holding above approximately $1.40-$1.41.
Related to: XRP Price Prediction: Will Bulls Flip $1.72 in order to Shift Trend
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