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Bitcoin will end January 2026 at a low $80,000 level.
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Since 2011, only 4 months have shown losses.
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Early-year market direction is influenced by mid-quarter positioning, Q1 performance and early-quarter market direction.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $82,891 as of the time of publication. It has fallen 7.5% in the last week, 5.5% this month, and 20 % year-on-year. Bitcoin’s prices are set to end January in a bearish manner. Historical patterns suggest that the returns for February are mixed.
January 2026 Performance Overview
The first month often sets the tone of Q1. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin’s Q1 performance has varied over the years, with some years seeing sharp rallies, and others experiencing steep corrections. Data shows that 2021 Q1 had gains of +103.17% while 2018 Q1 experienced a -49.7% drop.
February Performance: Historical Context
The analysis of Bitcoin’s returns for each month from 2011 to 2026 shows that February is historically a good month, with only four years showing losses. The highest positive February returns were in 2011 (+65.2%), 2013, (+54.9%), 2024 (+44%). The largest declines occurred in 2014 (-33.7%) and 2025 (-17.5%).
Notably, the positive Bitcoin returns in February stand out as one of the most reliable months of the entire year. It has an average gain of +13.1%, and a median gain of +12.2%.
The direction of the market in February tends to mirror that of January. When January closes higher than expected, February often extends gains or maintains upside continuation. Even after a weaker January, February still managed to close positively in several instances. This highlights its strength as an independent month.
This makes February a crucial confirmation period for the beginning of the year, when traders can gauge whether bullish conditions have firmed up or if risk appetite has begun to decline as the year progresses.
What Analysts Say
Analysts at X believe Bitcoin could face further declines in H1 2026. He said that $75K is a key support, but the better target appears to be $65, which is reinforced by the 200 week moving average near $60K. The 100-week moving median at $88K is now acting as resistance, suggesting that rallies may be limited.
Analyst QUANTUM said Bitcoin is currently showing only limited bullish signs, with no clear movement from gold or silver to crypto. He said the near-term goal was around $74,000, while $494,000 represents a worst-case scenario. He projected, however, that any significant bullish movement would likely occur during Q3 or Q4.
Contrastingly, Michael van de Poppe says Bitcoin may be nearing a turning point. Indicators such as the RSI against the gold and the MVRV-Z-Score indicate historical bear-market conditions.
A break above $87,000 may signal a return of previous trading ranges. $100,000 is a possible goal. Bitcoin is historically undervalued and may be nearing the end of its corrective phase.
Related:Arthur Hayes explains why Dollar Liquidity Decline is Dragging Bitcoin Lower
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