Fundstrat’s Tom Lee thinks historical precedent indicates April could be a strong month for stocks.
In a new interview on CNBC, Lee estimates that 90-95% of the market’s Iran war-related sell-offs are already in the past.
“As March unfolded, the war looked like not to be a short war, but one that was longer, and I think markets have been adjusting to that. But we’re still in the midst of this fog of war, because we don’t know when it ends, but we did look at the past seven major war events, and the stock market adjusts pretty quickly.
Within the first 10% of the entire duration of a war, the stock market usually bottoms.”
Lee points to World War II as a key historical reference.
So World War II was almost five years, and the market bottomed five months into that war. So I do think, as bad as March was, we’ve probably seen a big part of that adjustment. And now I think the risk/reward is quite good for stocks.”
The market strategist still envisions the S&P 500 reaching 7,700 by year’s end despite the rough start to 2026.
The leading index is priced at 6,604.85 at time of writing and is up 3.15% in the past five days but down 3.82% year-to-date.
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This post Stock Market 90–95% Done With War-Related Sell-Offs, Says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee – Here’s His Forecast may be modified as updates unfold.
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