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Senator Chris Murphy expressed concerns about corruption amid an increase in trading on prediction market.
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Six Polymarket accounts bet about $1.2M on US strikes against Iran shortly before the attacks.
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One account purchased over 560,000 shares for $0.108 and received almost $560,000.
Senator Chris Murphy raised concerns about corruption after a wave prediction market bets correctly predicted US military strikes against Iran hours before they took place.
Six accounts placed large bets on Polymarket’s prediction market, Polymarket, predicting that the United States would attack Iran before February 28, 2026. This data comes from Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps.
The accounts were opened just hours before the explosions in Tehran. They bought “Yes” stocks. The six accounts earned a total of $1.2 million when the market settled.
One wallet purchased 560,000 shares for approximately $0.108 each. After the strike, the market settled to $1 and the position was worth nearly $560,000. The majority of the wallets that funded these trades appeared in the first 24 hours after the attack.
Murphy said that the timing strongly suggests that people who knew about the strike in advance may have profited from prediction markets. He warned that betting on military decisions could encourage insiders to promote conflict if they can make money.
As tensions with Iran grew, trading volumes on prediction markets increased sharply.
Dune Analytics’ user-compiled data shows that $425.4 millions flowed into Polymarket geopolitics markets in the week ending March 1. The previous week, $163.9 millions was spent.
More than 150 accounts bet at least $1,000 on the US strike before Saturday. The total value for these late bets was approximately $855,000. At least 16 accounts ended up making profits in excess of $100,000.
Murphy argued that prediction market linked to war decisions can distort policies. He said that officials who were in sensitive meetings might be able to influence events if their positions would pay off after military action.
The senator also referred to the increasing economic pressures on Americans. He said that households are already paying more for fuel and groceries due to geopolitical conflicts, while others may profit from the same events.
Related: Iran’s Multi-Billion-Dollar Cryptocurrency Market Faces a New Scrutiny During Conflict
Calls for a ban on war prediction markets
Murphy said that he was preparing legislation banning prediction markets linked to government actions and decisions.
He has described these platforms before as “corrupt and unstable,” arguing that those with insider information can manipulate the outcome by betting on the news before the public does.
The proposal comes as the US Senate voted by 53-47 against a bipartisan measure that would have limited President Donald Trump’s war powers in regards to continued military action without congressional approval.
The entire prediction market industry has been scrutinized more closely since the debate.
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