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JPMorgan Chase’s Bitcoin support is near its $77K production costs despite recent price drops.
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The bank anticipates that stronger institutional flows will drive a wider crypto recovery in 2026.
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Analysts claim that long-term upside is still intact despite extreme fear in the markets.
JPMorgan Chase, despite the current Bitcoin correction, is taking a longer-term perspective, and projects a promising future in 2026, led by stronger institutional flow.
Bitcoin is currently trading for $66,100. This is a drop of 1.63% in the last day. The Wall Street giant believes Bitcoin’s estimated production cost of $77,000 could provide support, even though prices are trading well below this level.
Bitcoins Drop Below Production Cost
Bitcoin is down more than 30% in the last month. It was recently trading at $60,000. This was during the historic sell-off of last week. The premier crypto is currently trading at $66,100, 47% below its previous high.
The market capitalization of digital assets has also fallen sharply from $4.1 trillion down to $2.3 trillion.
According to JPMorgan’s analysts led by Nikolaos Pantigirtzoglou the estimated production cost of Bitcoin, historically viewed as a “soft floor price,” now stands at around $77,000. Previous estimates had it closer to $87,000.
The bank warns that if Bitcoin continues to trade below this level, it could force miners with higher costs offline. This could reduce the overall production costs and create a dynamic that self-corrects over time.
The 2026 Recovery will be Driven by Institutional Flows
JPMorgan’s outlook for 2026 remains positive despite “extreme fear” and weak sentiment. The bank believes that the next leg up will be driven by institutions, not retail traders or digital assets treasuries.
Clarity in regulation in the United States could support new capital inflows.
The recent downturn has been exacerbated by ETF outflows and fading retail demand. Futures markets have also been forced to deleverage.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Long-Term Repricing?
JPMorgan argues that Bitcoin has also become more appealing compared to gold.
Bitcoin has become more attractive when adjusted for volatility due to the outperformance of gold in comparison to last October. Analysts noted that the bitcoin to gold volatility ratio has reached record lows.
JPMorgan estimated that Bitcoin’s market capital would have to increase significantly to match the private-sector investment in gold (excluding central bank assets), which is estimated at $8 trillion. In this scenario, the implied price over time could reach $266,000.
The bank said that this was not a forecast for the near future and called it unrealistic for the current calendar year. The bank frames the figure to reflect Bitcoin’s potential upward movement over a multiyear horizon, once negative sentiment has faded and the asset is re-accepted as a hedge.
Market Still Under Pressure
Fear & Greed Index is at 8 in the short-term. Bitcoin has lost much of its post-election gains and market stress metrics indicate elevated capitulation signals.
JPMorgan’s position suggests that despite the volatility, institutional confidence remains intact. Bernstein’s analysts, for example, remain confident that Bitcoin will reach a $150,000 high this year.
Related:Bitcoin price outlook 2026: What $1000 in BTC could be worth
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