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Bitcoin breaks $84k Resistance, showing similar technical action to past bull runs
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Weekly key signals (MA50 support and RSI >70), align strongly with previous cycle history
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Analysts are now watching daily closes above $88k to confirm this pattern
Bitcoin’s current cycle is strikingly similar to the structural resets that occurred in 2017 and 2021.
The key market indicators like the relationship between Bitcoin volatility and market capitalization (BTC/VIX) and the total crypto-market capitalization on the weekly charts are aligning with those seen at previous significant market shifts. These past major price adjustments were more than just downturns. They reset the market and allowed subsequent major upward trends to begin.
The Bitcoin Script – How past crashes historically set up new highs
Bitcoin’s price history is a multi-year pattern that repeats itself. Usually, strong upward legs fueled by widespread excitement end in steep price falls (historically sometimes more than 80%-85% below the peak).
After these major drops were quieter periods, where long-term investors would steadily buy, laying the foundation for the next significant rise. Examples include the lows around $200 after 2013, around $3,000 after 2017 and around $16,000 after the 2021 peak.
Related Why Bitcoin Needs More than Just LTHs to Start a Real Rally
The 2025 structure shows a familiar pattern: after reaching a high of $100,000, Bitcoin fell sharply to under $80,000, driven primarily by macroeconomic stress, and increased geopolitical risk. This pullback has pushed prices into zones that saw significant buying in previous cycles, potentially preparing for the next upward trend.
Bitcoin Price Check: Can BTC break key resistance to confirm pattern?
Bitcoin is currently trading at $85,050. It has recovered from its recent lows of $74,436. On the 4-hour graph, the price has moved above the descending tendency line, and is now in the immediate overhang supply, which is concentrated between $84,200 to $85,700.
The Relative Strength Index is around 59.58. This indicates that the market is not overheated, but there are moderate levels of buying energy. Fibonacci levels, for example, offer clearer goals: $85,700 (0.786), $88,700 (1.00) and $97600 (1.618), plus a potential upside of $111,900 (2.618) if trend continuation is confirmed.
A daily close of $88,000 or higher remains the key threshold for bullish confirmation. On the downside, support levels include $82,000, $79,900, and $77,800.
If history is any guide, could Bitcoin already be building towards $150k?
The market structure, along with on-chain indicators, and historical cycle patterns suggest that Bitcoin is entering a phase of pressure build-up ahead of another expansion.
The confirmation of the breakout strength above $88,000 and the sustained return institutional buying will depend on volume. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin’s journey to $150,000 could already be underway.
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