Benjamin Cowen, a popular crypto-strategist, warns that a single macroeconomic indicator could potentially derail Bitcoin (BTC’s) break above $70,00.
Cowen told his 873,000 social media followers that Bitcoin’s response around the psychological $70,000 level would determine whether BTC will follow the cyclical view or the monetary policies.
Analysts point out that, while Bitcoin historically has rallied in Q4 during a year of half-year, the breakout surge anticipated could be months delayed if BTC takes a lead from the macroeconomic data and follows the view on monetary policy.
The cyclical view for BTC suggests that it will rise in the fourth quarter of 2024.
According to the monetary policy perspective, there will be a decline (and then a rise in 2025).
It was logical to take the cyclical perspective in March. However, now it’s a coin toss as to which viewpoint will prevail.
BTC’s ability to get above $70,00 on more than a single wick favors a cyclical outlook.
“If BTC continues to fail at $70,000 or just below and begins heading back down towards $64,000 then the monetary policies view is likely to prevail, and the breakout will not happen before 2025.”
Cowen believes that BTC may be influenced by the US Labor Market data due to be released on 1st November.
The most important thing that will determine short-term trends is likely to be the employment market data released this week.
Cowen stated earlier this month that Bitcoin would likely experience bearish conditions as the US unemployment rates continue to increase to the end of the year. Analysts recently stated that they are waiting to see the data from the jobs report before investing in BTC.
The market wants to know whether the recent decline in unemployment represents a trend or a stochastic movement higher.
Cowen says that if the numbers on the labor market are disappointing, it could lead to a situation where BTC is forced into a surrender.
BTC corrected in April by 18%, and then pulled back as much as 25 % by August.
Bitcoin was trading at $71,239 as of the time this article is written, an increase of nearly 5% over the last day.
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The post Bitcoin Could Experience a Capitulation Before It Soars Higher Next Year, according to an Analyst. Here’s why may be updated as new information becomes available.
