SpaceX stock (NASDAQ: SPCX) is falling even though Wall Street still sees substantial upside, highlighting the gap between the company’s long-term ambitions and the cost of reaching them.
The stock dropped 4.2% to $156.54 on Tuesday. At that price, TipRanks’ $216 average analyst target implied about 38% upside, with 28 Buy ratings, five Holds and two Sells.
Yet investors kept selling as SpaceX added another expensive growth project to an already capital-heavy strategy.
Starlink Mobile gives Wall Street another reason to stay bullish
SpaceX agreed to acquire up to 14 MHz of nationwide 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management for about $8 billion, giving Starlink Mobile low-band frequencies for indoor and rural coverage.
Pivotal Research analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak raised his target to $230 from $220 and maintained a Buy rating after adding Starlink Mobile to his forecasts.
SpaceX “appears to have created a legitimate new low-cost carrier” initially aimed at rural and suburban customers, Wlodarczak said.
Pivotal forecasts roughly 160 million Starlink Mobile subscribers globally by 2036.
The addressable market could be enormous if SpaceX combines satellites, spectrum and terrestrial connectivity successfully.
But investors are being asked to value that opportunity years before the economics are proven, and a roughly $2 trillion valuation leaves less room for delays.
Owning spectrum is easier than building a mobile network
Low-band spectrum and satellites solve only part of the wireless challenge. Stifel analyst Jonathan Siegmann reiterated a Buy rating and $190 target this week but identified the central gap plainly.
“Ground infrastructure is the missing piece,” Siegmann wrote.
He said SpaceX could build that network itself, partner with operators or redesign the architecture. Barron’s noted that a competitive direct-to-cell network could require more than $100 billion if SpaceX builds much of the infrastructure independently.
Raymond James analyst Frank Louthan offered another reality check.
“We believe the recent fears over competition from SpaceX are overblown, as they are 3+ years away from becoming reality,” Louthan said, according to Investing.com.
Owning spectrum is not the same as operating a dependable nationwide network against incumbents with far greater terrestrial capacity.
SpaceX stock: Financing future could become bigger valuation test
SpaceX is also spending on Starship, satellite deployment and an expanding artificial-intelligence push.
The company is seeking roughly $40 billion in financing to buy Nvidia chips, including about $10 billion of bank loans and $30 billion of investment-grade debt.
JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth projects capital expenditure could reach about $200 billion in both 2027 and 2028, according to The Motley Fool, after SpaceX spent $28.5 billion in the first half of 2026.
Debt raises interest expense, while equity financing can dilute shareholders. Delays in Starlink Mobile, Starship or AI monetisation would leave investors carrying those costs for longer.
The financing concern is already visible in credit markets. The Financial Times reported that SpaceX’s five-year credit-default-swap spread reached a record as investors assessed the borrowing surge.
This post SpaceX stock has 38% upside on Wall Street, so why are investors still selling? appeared first on The ICD
Please note, this site provides content for entertainment purposes only and does not offer financial advice. Read more here