October CPI rose 0.4% on top of September’s 0.6%, and Governor Waller said he is leaning toward a 25bp December hike, or 50bp if inflation stays high.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller said Tuesday, November 10 that he is leaning toward backing a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed’s December 8-9 meeting, and would go further if inflation does not cool. Waller said a bigger move should be on the table: “In that case, I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting.”
The comments came on the day the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 0.6% increase in September. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% for the third straight month. Waller said the 50 basis point option is contingent on inflation staying elevated; he did not define the threshold that would trigger it.
Markets repriced within minutes
Stocks sold off on the release. By early afternoon on November 10 the S&P 500 was down 0.94% at 7,478.79 and the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.61% at 24,847.02. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed to 5.01%, against 4.86% at Monday’s close.
Waller’s stance is his own, not the committee’s. The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee has 12 voting members, and the outcome of the December meeting is not settled: a governor signaling a lean toward a hike does not mean the Fed has committed to one.
The Fed votes without November’s data
The calendar tightens the stakes. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has scheduled the November CPI release for Thursday, December 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET, the day after the FOMC meeting ends. The committee will decide on rates before seeing how prices behaved this month.
The data picture is also thinner than usual. BLS said it did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations, so 12-month percent changes for October 2026 cannot be published for the affected indexes. This month’s report contains monthly figures only.
Nasdaq’s Stock Market, meanwhile, remains on schedule to go live with 23/5 trading on December 6, two days before the FOMC convenes.
Please note, this site provides content for entertainment purposes only and does not offer financial advice. Read more here