Recent polls show that Donald Trump and Kamalah Harris are still in a close race as they head into the final weeks of their presidential campaigns.
It appears that Wall Street has already decided the winner of the Office in November.
Jose Torres, a senior economist with Interactive Brokers, said: “Investors have been very, very supportive of Trump based on our conversations and just the general atmosphere.”
The benchmark S&P 500 is still very strong ahead of the election, up now close to 25% since the beginning of 2024.
Trump’s victory may be a curse for European stocks
Investors are predicting Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House by November based on the continued weakness of European stocks.
The former president of the United States will likely announce new tariffs for imports. This could have a significant impact on the earnings of European companies.
According to Emmanuel Cau of Barclays, the European equity strategist, EU equities have lagged behind because they are perceived as “the losers” from a second Trump administration.
He added that a transatlantic trade war after Trump’s win could lower EPS growth as much as 9.0%, in the worst case scenario.
Barclays expects that the European auto and tech markets will be hit hard if Donald Trump wins reelection as President of the United States this November.
Under a Republican government, inflation could creep up.
The inflation market is another indication that Wall Street has already priced in a Trump win. The Republican candidate’s economic policies are expected to lead to higher inflation levels in 2025.
Meghan Swiber, a Bank of America strategist, told investors recently that “expected tariffs (per Trump’s stated proposals), support potential upside risks to market pricing of the inflation if Trump is elected president of the United States.”
Inflation in September was up 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.4% year-over-year.
Bureau of Labour Statistics: Both readings exceeded Dow Jones consensus by 0.1% percentage points.
In recent weeks, the forecasts for future Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers have also risen.
Inflation compensation has increased over the last month, confirming that. In her research note, the BofA Strategist argues that Donald Trump will beat Kamala in the US elections in 2024.
She believes that Trump’s tariffs will cause inflation to rise by 70 to 80 basis point in the next few months.
This post Has the market predicted the winner of the US election in 2024? This post may be updated as new information unfolds
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