Eli Lilly’s (LLY), a pharmaceutical company, has lowered its sales forecast for the fourth quarter by 5% to $13.5 Billion.
The company had previously predicted a figure $400 million lower. This includes $3.5 billion in revenue from the type 2 diabetes medication Mounjaro, and $1.9 from the weight loss drug Zepbound.
Wall Street forecasts have been missed on all fronts.
David Risinger, an analyst at Leerink Partners, maintained a positive outlook for Eli Lilly despite this setback. He cited promising developments within the company’s pipeline.
Risinger stated in a recent report.
We expect the financial performance in 2025 and newsflow from pipeline (specifically, oral GLP-1 Orforglipron PH3 results) will be positive.
Risinger reduced his price target from $970 to $950, but he maintained an Outperform rating on the stock.
Eli Lilly’s shares rose by 0.22% on Wednesday, at 1:13 pm. They now stand at $746.04.
The stock dropped by 8 percent on Tuesday after the company predicted that sales for the fourth quarter of the weight loss drug Zepbound would be below Wall Street expectations.
Stocks have gained a staggering 434.64% in the past 5 years. This is a far superior performance to the S&P 500, which gained only 78.42%.
Eli Lilly’s sales forecast for Zepbound: sleep apnea approved
Eli Lilly’s FDA approval of Zepbound to treat obstructive Sleep Apnea is a key achievement.
The approval of the drug will allow for wider insurance coverage, particularly for Medicare patients.
Medicare reimburses weight loss drugs only if the drug treats a condition that is related, like sleep apnea or lowers cardiovascular risk.
It is a significant opportunity, since an estimated 20,000,000 Americans have moderate to severe obstructive sleeping apnea.
Around 18.5% of US residents are over 65 years old, meaning that approximately 3.7 millions people qualify for Medicare.
Risinger pointed out that Eli Lilly could benefit from a significant revenue boost as the treatment of sleep apnea is gaining in importance.
Wegovy expanding global and competing with them
Zepbound has gained momentum in the market as a rival to Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy.
Zepbound showed superior results in a clinical study comparing it to Wegovy, which helped patients to lose 20.2% more body weight over the course of 72 weeks.
Zepbound has strengthened its position on the weight loss drug market.
Eli Lilly has also been preparing to launch Zepbound in markets that accept self-payment, such as China and India.
There is a significant potential for growth in these regions, especially China where 400 million obese people live.
The company, however, has stressed the importance of matching manufacturing capacity to demand in order to prevent disruptions on established markets.
Analysts like Risinger are still optimistic about Eli Lilly’s future trajectory despite the company’s recent cut in guidance and a drop of 7% in its stock price.
Focusing on innovative products, expanding the company’s market, and meeting unmet medical requirements will help it grow in years to come.
This article, Eli Lilly reduces Q4 forecast but analysts remain bullish–here is why appeared on The ICD.
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