GLD ETF closed the week on a positive note, reversing losses from the previous week. It remains range bound as investors wait for a new bullish catalyst to boost bullion price.
Safe havens continue to be in demand due to geopolitical turmoil and uncertainty caused by tariffs. Despite the bullish trend, central banks’ buying slowed in Q2 25.
GLD Gold Price Consolidates As Demand Declines
Gold’s bullish momentum in the first half of this year has been largely driven by geopolitical uncertainty. Recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have lowered risk perceptions, while increasing demand for safe assets such as precious metals.
Vladimir Putin, unfazed by the ultimatum of President Trump, has stated that Russian troops “advance on the frontline”. Ukraine also announced that it had attacked Russia’s oil installations on Saturday. Geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns have changed the mood of the markets from one of greed to that neutral.
In addition, the US dollar’s gains have been capped and are supporting gold prices in the near term. A weaker dollar makes gold less expensive to buyers who hold foreign currencies.
Data released Friday revealed that the economy added 73,000 new jobs in July, versus the 110,000. The weak NFP figures and Trump’s decision of firing Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics further depressed the US dollar. US President Donald Trump accused Erika McEntarfer of manipulating data.
Investors will look for a new catalyst to drive the gold price in the next week. The demand for gold is still strong, but the pace has slowed.
The World Gold Council reports that the World Gold Council has noted a slowdown in the central bank purchases during Q2 25 as gold prices reached multiple records highs. Specifically, the central banks bought 166.5 tonnes during this three-month time period. This figure is one-third lower than Q1’25 and brings the H1’25 purchases to their lowest levels since 2022.
Even after this ease, central banks’ purchases remain one of the main drivers behind gold’s upward trend. The underlying story hasn’t changed, even though higher gold prices have reduced the incentive for institutions to purchase.
Their pace of purchasing increased significantly during the Russia/Ukraine War and subsequent freezing of Russia’s foreign currency reserves. This was a wake-up call to the importance of gold in hedging against geopolitical risk. Analysts anticipate significant gold purchases in the rest of the year, with an estimated 815 tonnes on an annualized basis.
GLD ETF Technical Analysis
Source: TradingView
After two weeks of losses, the GLD gold rate ended this week with a positive note. It remains below its 5-week peak reached early in the week. After pulling back from a 1-month-low earlier in the week, it is now significantly below that high.
Even though the price of gold fluctuated, GLD remained above the important support zone at $300. It has been trading mainly within the range between 302 and 312. The daily chart of GLD gold shows that it is largely neutral.
The current consolidation could continue into the next week, with an RSI reading of 52. Even though safe haven demand is high, bulls might not be able to maintain enough momentum for a retest of the $317 all-time-high. This would place the upper resistance level at $315. This thesis would be invalidated if the price dropped below $300, which is a crucial level.
The post GLD ETF Forecast as Gold Price Consolidation Continues may be updated as new information unfolds
