Apple stock AAPL gained 2% on Wednesday after Counterpoint Research estimated that the company could sell 6 million units of its upcoming iPhone Duo this year, while UBS said wait times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max remain relatively unchanged.
The iPhone Duo will be Apple’s first foldable smartphone, with pre-orders scheduled to begin on Oct. 16 ahead of its Oct. 23 release.
However, UBS said its data showed limited changes in iPhone availability across more than 30 geographies, potentially indicating that demand for the existing Pro models has not accelerated significantly.
Counterpoint estimates 6M iPhone Duo sales
Counterpoint Research said procurement for panels used in the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max and Duo is modestly higher than procurement for the iPhone 17 lineup.
Panel procurement for the Pro and Pro Max models is up 2% year over year, with the remaining increase attributed to the iPhone Duo.
The foldable smartphone starts at $1,999 for the 256GB version and goes up to 2TB.
Counterpoint expects Apple to sell about 6 million Duo units this year.
The device has a design similar in size to a passport and features two rounded corners.
Apple describes it as its thinnest iPhone, with an aerospace titanium frame and a 7.6-inch Super Retina XDR display.
The display is 50% larger than that of the iPhone 18 Pro Max and 80% larger than the iPhone Pro.
UBS says iPhone wait times remain ‘flattish’
While the Duo sales estimate provided a potential catalyst for Apple shares, UBS said wait times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max have remained relatively stable.
“UBS Evidence Lab data that tracks iPhone availability across 30+ geographies suggests that wait times were relatively unchanged on a [week-over-week] basis,” UBS analyst David Vogt wrote in a note to clients.
“The Pro in the US was the only notable delta, declining by ~2 days [week-over-week],” Vogt added.
According to Vogt, average wait times are also broadly in line with last year’s levels.
The Pro in the US is down two days year over year, while the Pro in China is up two days. The Pro Max in China is down four days.
Vogt said the relatively unchanged wait-time gap for the Pro Max in China could indicate that some consumers are waiting for the Duo next month.
He expects existing Pro Max users seeking upgraded specifications, particularly in China, could make up the initial market for the new form factor.
Vogt has a Neutral rating on Apple and a $296 price target.
Apple prepares new smart-home products
Separately, Apple is reportedly preparing to expand further into the smart-home market with a new home hub expected to launch on Oct. 13.
According to Bloomberg News, the device is expected to feature a roughly 6-inch square display that can be placed on a countertop or mounted on a wall.
It will be designed to control connected home products, make video calls, play music, and display photos.
The hub is also expected to recognize household members through voice or facial recognition and display personalized information, including calendars, messages and contacts.
A visitor mode will hide personal information.
Bloomberg also reported that Apple plans to introduce an updated HomePod mini and a new Apple TV set-top box, with both expected to retain their current designs while receiving faster processors to support Apple’s artificial intelligence features.
The products are expected to showcase Apple’s revamped Siri assistant, which uses large language models and is designed to handle more complex requests and control apps and smart-home devices.
Apple has been seeking to expand in the smart-home market, where Amazon and Google have established larger presences.
The company is also working on a home-security camera and other smart-home products, according to Bloomberg.
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