Karthik Shrinivasan is a communications strategist and tells that GLP-1 drugs do not just affect what people eat.
The change in the way people eat. This is why it’s no longer a problem of marketing, but a problem with business models for many categories.
Weight-loss drugs are not only causing a revolution in health, but also a major retail shake-up.
Ozempic Wegovy Mounjaro and other GLP-1s have exploded into the mainstream. Grocery budgets have collapsed: from 5.3% to 8.2% within six months. Higher-income households cut their spending as much as by 8.6%.
The snack aisle is the worst hit.
The popularity of impulse purchases is fading: sweets and savoury snacks are down by approximately 8% each, while baked goods have fallen by about 7.5%.
Yoghurt and other fresh fruits are the only products that have seen a rise in sales.
KPMG predicts that this trend will continue: food and beverage expenditures are expected to drop by $48 billion annually through 2034.
It’s not a temporary dip, but a permanent reduction in demand.
Circana estimates that by 2030 GLP-1 will be responsible for 35 percent of food and beverage sales. cannot compete with biology when it says “no” to.
The business model crisis: From marketing problems to business models crises
The traditional food industry thinks that consumers want to eat.
The job of a company was to discover the customer’s cravings and make them irresistible by packaging and taste engineering. They also had to sell more.
GLP-1 medications obliterate this assumption.
Morgan Stanley’s research shows that 66% of GLP-1-users have cut back on their daily snacking from 3 to 2 snacks.
It’s not an error in messaging, but a reset of the brain.
These medications suppress appetite by altering the reward system in the brain.
A study conducted by International Flavors & Fragrances noted that approximately 85% of GLP-1-users report taste and appetite change, and 74% avoid fatty food and 67% skip sweets completely.
Srinivasan says, “Marketing is based on the assumption that there’s a desire for food.”
GLP-1s block this desire right at its source. It is not enough to simply send a message in order to revive sluggish appetite.
This has a profound impact: Traditional advertising which taps into emotional eating and cravings no longer works when the neurochemical machinery responsible for generating these impulses is chemically disabled.
This is the shrinkflation paradox, only in reverse.
When the consumer is unaware, shrinkflation is an effective method.
GLP-1 consumers are increasingly aware of the price and portions.
Srinivasan clarifies the nuance.
It is possible to sell smaller portions for premium prices, but this only works with brands who are premium in the first place. Those that are more about density, experience, or purpose than volume. If you’re like everyone else, shrinking your packs and not rethinking their value is going to feel more like hidden inflation than innovation.
It’s not perceived as clever to sell a smaller bar for the same price. Instead, it is perceived as a poor deal compared with a bigger candy bar that’s higher in protein and costs more.
What food giants have actually failed?
Traditional snackers aren’t happy with the damage, which is not uniform.
PepsiCo reported a decline in savoury snack volume for five quarters running.
Mondelez International reported unfavourable volume and mixture across all regions. North America was down by 2.4%, mainly due to a softening demand for baked snacks and candy.
Hershey’s, the candy giant, admitted to a “mild impact” on its sales in November 2024. The carefully worded statement hid underlying structural concerns.
Net sales for the company’s North American salted-snacks fell 15.5% from last year, while volume and mix declined 17%.
This is a major shortfall for a business that projects a 2-4% growth over the long term.
It’s not a fair distribution. The hardest hit are the ultra-processed and calorie-dense products: cookies, chips, sweets, drinks with sugar, etc.
KPMG found in a separate analysis that GLP-1-users reduce their annual caloric consumption by 21%, and they spend less on groceries by 31%.
This can lead to a restructuring of the industry over ten years.
The analyst views are conservative and aggressive. Piper Sandler predicts a 20-30 basis point impact on salty snacks and confectionery, while the $48 billion forecast for spending reductions suggests a much steeper decline in certain categories.
Nobody is talking about the restaurant disaster
The number of fast-food restaurants and other limited service eateries has decreased by 8% for GLP-1 patients. 54% report that they have eaten out less frequently or significantly since taking the medication.
QSRs are based on the idea that people crave high-fat, high sodium, highly-processed foods. This model is largely driven by appetite.
This model breaks down when appetite is suppressed chemically.
Srinivasan says, “The bigger challenge is the fact that food industries have been designed to encourage consumption above and beyond hunger.”
It means eating more, snacking more often, and being more indulgent. GLP-1 drugs reveal that dependence. Brand storytelling is not very effective when biology, induced by GLP-1 drug use, says ‘enough.’
Market bifurcation: who wins and who dies?
This is where the tale becomes more nuanced.
It’s not that the snacking industry is disappearing, but rather fragmenting.
In 2030, GLP-1 will be used by 35% of US homes. The rest of the 65% are likely to continue snacking at historic levels.
These two groups have very different requirements. The other is concerned with nutrient content in severely restricted portions.
One wants dopamine, the other indulgence. The two consumer groups are not compatible.
Harish Bijoor captures complexity in his conversation with Invezz
Hunger is the driving force behind many brands and products in snacking industries. If hunger is suppressed then so will the market. It is good news for snack brands that there are not many people who will support appetite suppression.
He adds important context.
Many people who fall into the high-risk obesity category will turn to appetite suppression. The market for these drugs will continue to grow at an accelerated pace.
Protein snacks are the clear winners. Global protein snacks are expected to increase at a CAGR of 8.7-9.1% from 2025-2035. The market will grow from $4.92 Billion today to $10.83 Billion by 2035.
With 62.8% of the market, plant-based proteins snacks are in charge. Consumers are flocking to high-protein snacks, such as jerky and protein bars.
The real test comes from the operators who are on the front line.
People are generally becoming more conscious of the good and bad things they can do for themselves in the future. The demand isn’t decreasing; rather, it’s changing to healthier options. You’ll see a steep drop in sales if you sell fried potatoes chips. If you sell beetroot chip, your sales will increase each quarter.
The fine dining model will not be affected by the rapid changes in consumption patterns, as it is being done across all industries. Kunal said that the future will always be a mix of healthy eating and a great dining experience.
Singal’s observation is a reflection of what’s going on in the world of food: It’s not a collapse universal, but intelligent adaptation.
Those who bet on the consumer of yesterday will lose out when it comes to traditional sweets, salty snack products, or baked goods with high calorie content.
Morgan Stanley predicts that consumption of frozen pizzas and chips as well as ice creams, cakes, cookies or chocolates will decline by up to 3 percent in 2035.
Simple math: less consumers who are interested in those products, plus non-GLP-1 customers from this group reducing their intake equals secular decline.
Adaptation and extinction: The Innovation Imperative
The leading companies bet on repositioning instead of defending their legacy snacks.
Nestle has launched Vital Pursuit a new line of frozen meals specifically designed for GLP-1 patients. The product features portion control, high-protein content, essential nutrition, and transparent packaging.
The company has expanded its product line due to the strong sales.
Vital Pursuit is sold to households that do not use GLP-1. This suggests that health-conscious customers are buying these products in large numbers.
Conagra will introduce “On Track”, badges, on Healthy Choice frozen foods in 2025. These products are marked as being high protein, low calorie and rich in fiber.
PepsiCo’s acquisition of Siete – a plant-based brand of snacking – positions it in categories that are functional and protein-forward, moving away from the commodity-salty snack.
This is not a defensive move; it’s a strategic repositioning.
It is important to note that the pivot from earlier food companies has not been a successful one. Survival does not come by selling more food at a lower price.
This comes about by redefining what the product is for.
Venture capital is a signal
Venture capital is a great way to track the growth of food industry.
Berry Street is a platform that connects GLP-1 users to registered dietitians. It raised $50,000,000 by 2025.
Fay Nutrition is an AI-powered platform that pairs patients with nutritionists. It has raised $50 Million in Series B Funding from Goldman Sachs.
Gruns, an nutrient dense gummy product brand, has raised 35 million dollars in funding for Series B in 2025. The money will be used to create products that fill in nutritional gaps of bodies consuming 40 percent less calories.
This is not a marginal wager.
Investors are convinced that the $190-billion opportunity is in providing nutrient dense, intentional consumption and not snacking.
Biology beats Marketing
Snack brands can’t grow their business if 35% of the population has chemically suppressed their appetites by 2030.
Companies that will survive are those who accept this as a permanent shift, reposition themselves toward functional, protein-rich nutrition and serve consumption that is intentional, rather than just cravings.
The traditional snacking industry, based on impulse buying fueled by appetite, is in decline.
Bifurcation has already begun. Kunal Singal captured the truth: Demand isn’t going away, but shifting.
The future of health conscious, deliberate eating is being built by winners. Losers defend the past of junk food.
Srinivasan concluded:
Brand storytelling is not very effective when biology has said ‘enough.’
Companies that invest in the GLP-1 market today will win, and not those who bet on a shrinking demographic tomorrow.
The ICD published the article How Weight-loss Drugs are Destroying Big Snacking, Erasing Billions in Sales.
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