History is sometimes written accidentally.
The awakening of Europe has not been a spontaneous event.
The US is forcing the country to do so under Trump’s second tenure.
A national security gaffe that read as political parody was the catalyst: Donald Trump’s defence team added The Atlantic‘s editor to a Signal private chat.
The chat revealed not only military plans, but also the way senior US officials speak about Europe.
This leak has made it clear that the US does not view Europe as a partner in strategic affairs. It views it as an asset.
What remains to be seen is if Europe finally does something.
Does the assumption of transatlantic security collapse?
Throughout the decades, Europe’s economic model has been based on free riding of US security assurances.
NATO is responsible for allowing European governments to invest less in their defense, while they focus on developing welfare states, the single market and regulatory leadership, such as climate change and data.
This arrangement is no longer valid.
The Trump administration made it very clear that US commitments to security are not automatic.
Vance criticised European values in Munich.
Recent leaks of Trump’s inner circle revealed his desire for Europe to compensate him financially in return for US military actions.
Trump has himself floated the idea that he would withdraw from NATO’s highest military role, Supreme Allied commander Europe.
The US has held this position since 1951.
E5: A new security system
A new European configuration has begun to emerge as the United States steps back.
This informal group consists of 5 countries. They are now known as E5.
France, Germany and the UK are also included.
It’s not an official institution. No treaty, no secretariat. It’s where the coordination happens.
The five countries that make up the European Union are the most powerful in terms of economic strength, military power and political influence.
France and UK are permanent members of the UN Security Council and nuclear powerhouses.
Germany just raised its constitution debt limit to force through a EUR 500 billion package of defense and infrastructure.
Poland has already become NATO’s largest spender based on GDP, and it is on course to be the biggest army in Europe.
Before the summit in June, it is hoped to have a plan that outlines a gradual transition of NATO’s key responsibilities from Europe.
This plan could even include the appointment of a European to succeed the US Supreme Allied commander Europe, in the event that the US decides to leave.
It is neither a return of European federalism nor a renewal of EU defence proposals.
States are reacting impulsively because they know that Washington is no longer a reliable source of information.
What will be the impact of new investments?
The surge in investment by the public sector is one of Europe’s visible effects.
The German infrastructure and defence plan of EUR500 billion is expected to boost GDP in the coming decade.
Defense companies like Rheinmetall, and missile makers MBDA reported an increase in orders.
Since Trump’s second inauguration on January 20th, Eurozone stocks have risen 12% while US shares are down by nearly the same amount.
The economists raised their growth forecasts of the eurozone for 2026, from 1,2% to 1,3%.
The eurozone’s business activity has also picked up in recent months, reaching its highest level for seven months.
This momentum has real limitations.
Europe will continue to have its weaknesses. Priorities include high energy prices, fragmented markets and red tape.
The money is flowing but there are bottlenecks in the absorption and implementation.
It will be years before the funding for defense and infrastructure is fully realized.
While steelmakers like SMEs and Rheinmetall may prosper in 2025 due to the bureaucracy, and volatility of energy prices and costs, they will be struggling with bureaucracy.
Uncertainty and trade still hang over the world.
A looming trade conflict is another concern for Europe’s export driven economy.
The US will impose new duties on European products starting April 2.
According to the ECB, a tariff of 25% could reduce eurozone production by 0.3 percent points within a year.
The impact of a retaliatory response by Europe could be doubled.
Some investments are already frozen due to the uncertainty of trade.
The indexes that track policy risks, disruptions in trade, and investor sentiment have soared to new highs.
Manufacturing and financial executives say that they are holding off on making long-term plans until they have a better understanding of the direction in which US policy will be heading.
This clarity might not be coming anytime soon.
This is an emergency?
Many are calling it a European awakening.
Many even call it a turning-point. There’s a big difference between being forced to act and having a strategic plan.
Europe does not have a vision for the future. The reaction is to sudden abandonment.
While the announcements are impressive and include more money, stronger language, new collaboration, and increased spending, there is a foundation that is unsteady.
EU is still unable to act in a coordinated manner on matters of foreign policy. NATO’s command structure, while still intact, could be lost if the US leaves.
The E5 has a lot of momentum, but it does not include key European players: the Nordics and the Baltics as well as smaller countries with significant capabilities.
The public’s support is also important.
Most European voters still oppose large defense budgets.
The governments are still not being truthful about the cost of real autonomy.
Budgets are not the most significant shift in US-Europe relations.
Identity is key.
Signal’s leaked messages did not just ridicule Europe’s military expenditure, but they showed outright contempt.
The post Trump’s leaked emails and hatred of Europe is creating a new global order could be updated as events unfold.
