NATO’s allies in Europe just achieved a historic milestone.
All 32 members states agreed to a new bold target at the recent summit held in The Hague: to spend 5% on defense to prepare themselves for a future where Russia will be strengthening and the US may threaten to withdraw.
The numbers show something else. The unity is a cover for a chaotic and improvised military buildup, or in some cases, an entirely fictional one.
The headline is misleading
It’s not as simple as it sounds. This number can be broken down into three parts: 3.5% must go towards traditional defence, such as tanks, jets and salaries.
You can use the remaining 1,5% to cover “security” investment such as cybersecurity, disaster response and infrastructure.
This distinction is important because many countries have barely reached the original 2% target using these broader categories over the last decade.
Take Spain. Pedro Sanchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, recently announced a EUR10 billion budget. Just 19% goes towards actual military equipment. Rest of the budget is spent on cybersecurity and emergency services.
Spain basically negotiated a deal through the backdoor: It will only spend 2,1% and not 5%.
Italy faces a debt to GDP ratio of over 130%. It has not presented an updated defence budget, but claims it’s reached the 2 percent mark when it includes coast guard and financial crime policing.
In reality, what’s happening is a reclassification. Many of the old “2%” tricks are no longer considered defence under NATO’s rules.
Once the fog of accounting is cleared, it’s possible that some countries will see their real military expenditures closer to 1,3%.
Europe hasn’t yet absorbed this money
It’s not just the inflation that’s a problem, but also how it is implemented. German experience is instructive.
Merz promised that Europe would have the most powerful conventional army. Even the debt brake in Germany was lifted to allow him to spend more.
In 2023, Germany will have left EUR76 Billion of its federal budget unspent. This includes large amounts allocated for defence and infrastructure.
Only 25% of the 100 billion Euros military budget has been used in the last three years. This is not a new phenomenon.
The Climate and Transformation Fund in Germany, which was supposed to promote green energy and electric vehicle infrastructures has only averaged 65% implementation over the last seven years.
Imagine if you could triple the military expenditure in Europe by 2030. Who will be the people responsible for procurement? Where are the engineers? Materials? Workers?
The German construction industry is operating at maximum capacity. Adding more funds to the system won’t make it ready. This will create only bottlenecks.
Building the wrong kind of military
NATO would prioritise the following if its goal was a transformational plan: drones and cheap, autonomous systems; electronic warfare, logistic intelligence; rapid response networks.
Most countries rely on what they already know, like legacy systems or domestic suppliers.
Rheinmetall and Hensoldt are still the dominant suppliers in Germany. Naval contracts and partnerships in aerospace absorb most of the cash raised by France and Italy.
Some countries even added irrelevant projects, like surface capability for maritime surfaces to EU loan requests simply because they are familiar with how much money ships cost.
Europe is in need of a revolution when it comes to defence. It’s getting a huge surge of conventional spending rooted in the 20th century.
It’s the fact that this spending plan was not designed for modern warfare. The plan is being constructed for the sake of political appearances and convenience in procurement.
The public opinion is divided and contradictory
Rearmament is supported by Europeans, but only if it directly affects them. The ECFR polling shows that Poland, Denmark and the UK all support higher budgets for the military.
In Germany, Spain and France the support is hovering around 45%. It plummets down to just 17% in Italy.
The generational divide is striking when it comes to conscription. The older generation in France and Germany supports the reinstatement of military service. The opposition dominates among 18-29-year-olds who would actually be serving.
Some parliaments have political will, but the streets lack it.
In the meantime, confidence in America is declining. Over two thirds of Germans and Brits now think the American political system has broken down.
This number rises to 86% in Denmark. Transatlantic trust, which used to be unshakeable under Trump, is now eroding.
Yet, European extreme-right parties openly praise Trump’s style of leadership. Instead of looking to Putin, they now look at Florida.
Ironically, today being pro-American often means that you are anti-European.
Everyone is avoiding the real story of strategic autonomy
No matter what it does, Europe can’t protect itself without US help.
The majority of European militaries are unable to coordinate multi-national, large combat operations. NATO’s command structure remains dominated by the United States.
Europe relies on the US to provide surveillance, data from satellites, missile defense, and logistics for long distances. This dependency will not disappear, even with increased budgets.
Some countries like Poland and Spain are now in favor of building an independent European nuclear deterrent.
Merz, the German Chancellor, proposed that France and Britain share their nukes with the US, but admitted this could not replace the US umbrella.
The 5% pledge is meant to show that Europe takes its defence seriously. A serious defense does not come from making pledges. Clarity, execution and realism are the keys.
Currently, Europe spends more but is not spending smarter. The European Union is building up weapons systems without reforming its command structure.
The battlefield has changed and the old models of defence are no longer effective. It’s still waiting on the US.
NATO may not need more money. The organization needs to develop a plan independent of the US.
This post Beyond Europe’s 5% defense spending: The numbers tell a different story first appeared on The ICD
