Few months ago the ouster of Venezuela’s President looked as an isolated event.
Greenland was then under pressure.
The next chapter is already forming.
When taken together, these pieces indicate that something bigger is happening.
Investors haven’t witnessed anything like this since the Cold War.
Investors trying to predict the future aren’t interested in the most recent airstrike, or the barrage of missiles. What’s really important is the emerging pattern across different regions.
Venezuela: The opening move
After US airstrikes near Caracas, the capture of Nicolas Maduro stunned Latin American diplomats — and sent out a strong message.
Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, according to the US Energy Information Administration. This is more than Saudi Arabia.
The Panama Canal is also located here, as are the Gulf Coast of the United States and Europe.
Washington’s calculus is simple. A hostile government that controls the largest oil reserves on the planet, which are located in the Western Hemisphere represents a strategic long-term threat. The balance shifted overnight when Maduro was removed.
Old doctrines that have never really vanished
It is important to go back at least two centuries in order to understand the importance of Venezuela.
The Monroe Doctrine was first declared by the United States in 1823. It is a basic principle, which states that European countries should not be allowed to enter the Western Hemisphere.
Washington enforced its policy for much of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries through diplomatic leverage, economic pressure and at times military intervention.
After the Cold War, global institutions and international trade agreements were preferred as tools of influence. The strategic logic remained.
Latin America is America’s geopolitical back yard, and the emergence of foreign power there has always caused Washington to be concerned.
China’s growing presence in the region is a major cause of concern. Between 2005 and 2023, Chinese companies and banks invested more than 150 billion dollars in Latin America and Caribbean.
Venezuela is less of an isolated incident when viewed through this lens. It’s more of a reminder to the Western Hemisphere that it still has strategic importance.
The real goal of the Iran War
US and Israeli strikes against nuclear sites and high-ranking officials began the current conflict. Washington has signalled since that a regime change in Tehran is acceptable.
Already, the fighting is spreading. Iranian drone and missile attacks targeted Gulf States and the US Navy Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain.
This campaign’s goals extend beyond Iran’s nuke programme. They include weakening its regional military networks and dismantling the political system that has been built up since 1979.
According to reports from Iran, cracks have appeared.
As strikes increase and the deaths of senior officers continue, some military officers deserted and crews surrendered their vessels.
The regime is still standing. After the death of his father, Iran’s clerical leaders quickly named Mojtaba as their new supreme ruler. This move suggests that this war may last much longer than originally expected.
Cuba: economics as a weapon
Cuba is a more tolerant front, while Venezuela represents military might.
Donald Trump floated a proposal for a “friendly invasion” of the Island. Although the phrase sounds dramatic, it is a strategy based on economics.
Cuba faces one of the worst crises in its history: rolling blackouts and electricity shortages. Food and fuel are also scarce.
After Maduro’s ouster, the collapse in Venezuelan oil supplies exacerbated the chaos.
Washington responded by allowing US companies to sell fuel to Cuban private businesses directly, bypassing government-controlled channels. This has boosted the small island’s private sector.
This could, over time, reshape Cuba’s economy. New entrepreneurs with ties to US trade, energy and finance could slowly erode Cuba’s state-run economy.
Investors are likely to be shocked by the impact of this. Cuba is 90 miles away from Florida, and has sea routes connecting the Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico.
An open economy could have a positive impact on the Caribbean’s tourism, energy and logistics infrastructure.
The resource map
These events may seem chaotic if viewed day-by-day. Venezuela could be dominating the headlines one week and Cuba another, with Iran following.
The oil markets responded quickly.
Brent crude has soared past $100 per barrel as a result of disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz. Fears of an impending global energy crisis are also increasing.
Over a longer time horizon the themes are clear: geographie and natural resources continue to govern global power.
Venezuela has the largest reserves of oil in the world. Iran is in control of one the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Cuba is located at the mouth of Gulf of Mexico.
The globalisation did not erase these facts — it made them more difficult to ignore in years of relative stability.
If investors only focus on the quarterly performance, they may miss out on the larger picture.
The global economy is built on the control of raw materials, energy supplies and trade routes.
Market dynamics can be affected by political decisions to reshape this control for many decades.
As new information becomes available, this post may change.
