Mexico faces increased challenges in 2026 due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the re-examination of the United States, Mexico and Canada Agreement (USMCA), experts predict that this will cause the most volatility.
Jose Ignacio Martinez, Coordinator of the Laboratory for Analysis in Trade, Economy, and Business, told the Spanish news agency EFE, that Mexico’s economic growth is being affected by a lackluster investment and production, and caution from both businesses and consumers as we approach 2026.
He believes that despite positive factors such as the inflation rate, exchange rates and interest rates their effect has not yet resulted in a clearly domestic economic recovery.
Martinez believes that Trump will use tariffs to negotiate on several fronts in the first half 2026.
He also cited the need to control migration, fight against fentanyl and limit China’s participation in the Mexican Market.
Outlook impacted by global backdrop
Claudia Sheinbaum, the Mexican president’s usual Monday press conference, highlighted the world as the key theme for this year.
She said: “I believe 2025 will be a complicated year due in part to President Trump’s entry and the United States Government’s new global trading model.”
Experts in Mexico are preparing for an uncertain year, marked by policy uncertainty and trade talks, based on the global climate, as well as domestic fragility.
GDP growth expectations diverge
Janneth Quiroz Zamora, Monex’s Director of Economic, Currency, and Equity Analysis, recognized the risks associated with tariffs and the uncertainty around the USMCA, yet provided a more positive base-case scenario.
She told EFE, “We see a positive negotiation process for our country.”
Quiroz predicted that Mexico’s GDP will grow by 1,3% in 2026 compared with 0.4% growth in 2025.
She attributes the improvements to the lower interest rate, the economic spillovers of the FIFA World Cup and the potential for gaining a market share in North America compared with China.
Gabriela Siller is the director of Economic and Financial Analysis for Banco Base. She stated, “2026 will bring many challenges to our economy,” and noted that there would be economic stagnation and inflation.
She warned that this year may be misleading, as World Cup excitement could distract from the underlying problems.
Siller pointed out that Banco Base’s estimate of 0.4% growth in 2025 for the peso and 0.8% growth in 2026 could give the appearance that the economy was doing well even though the expansion is still insufficient.
USMCA is seen as an important event
The USMCA Review is a key event for 2026, according to most analysts.
Banorte’s Economic Analysis Team believes that the external scenario points towards a difficult situation, with Trump’s tariff policies continuing to be used throughout the review of the agreement.
Banorte noted that the trade integration between Mexico and the United States is a “differentiator” for Mexico, and can preserve the advantages of production chain reconfigurations and proximity.
Enrique Covarrubias of Actinver, the chief analyst, has also identified USMCA, as the biggest event in 2026.
The process, he said, could lead to a renewed agreement that would extend the duration of the contract until 2046.
He also predicted that if one side decided not to renew, the deal would still be in place until 2036.
Optimism and risks: Official optimism.
Sheinbaum, in contrast to the experts’ focus on risk assessments, has consistently expressed his confidence in treaty review.
She stated on December 19 that she is “very optimistic about the USMCA” process and added, “We’re on the right path.” The Mexican economy will do well by 2026.
Analysts say that as Mexico looks to the future, the combination of external pressures combined with domestic resilience will determine if optimism is able to counter uncertainty about tariffs and North America’s main trade agreement.
The post Mexico braces itself for trade turmoil as the USMCA Review looms 2026 could be updated as new information becomes available.
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