The global upstream oil and gas merger-and-acquisition (M&A) market is set to cool in 2026, with activity expected to dip below 2025 levels despite nearly $152 billion in available opportunities as of January, according to a Rystad Energy analysis.
In the analysis, Atul Raina said that Rystad expects North America will remain the dominant region for upstream M&A in 2026. Deal flow is increasingly being shaped by the new phase of consolidation between small and mid-cap US listed shale companies.
The fact that there is still a lot of private E&P money to deploy, the consolidation occurring in Canada’s Montney Shale, as well as a growing interest from Asian investors in LNG and gas-linked assets, will also support this.
In stark contrast, the international M&A scene continues to be inconsistent.
However, despite the fact that there are many deals in development, momentum has been constrained by a few high-value transactions.
The market is expected to see a greater participation of national oil companies from Asia, the Middle East and South America.
Raina says that this increased involvement is due to their desire for more international exposure and scale, particularly as most International Oil Companies maintain a select approach.
Market review for 2025 and the key deals
Global upstream Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As) will decrease by approximately 17% YoY in 2025.
There was also a 12% drop in the number of transactions, which reached 466.
The energy industry was dominated by several trends last year. These included consolidation in the US shale sector and substantial investment in LNG projects in the US, Argentina and Asia. Major companies also divested assets in the UK and Asia to create new joint ventures in these regions.
The SM Energy/Civitas merge, Cenovus Energy’s acquisition of MEG Energy and a Blackstone led consortium’s purchase from Sempra Infrastructure Partners of a 49.9% interest in Port Arthur Phase 2 LNG, the Eni/Petronas assets merger in Indonesia, Malaysia and TotalEnergies combining its UK operation with NeoNext Energy in order to form NeoNext+ are all examples of key deals that reflect these themes.
In the early part of the year, the energy sector saw significant developments, including potential merger talks between Coterra Energy & Devon Energy as well as Mitsubishi’s $7.5 billion purchase of Aethon Energy.
Global activity remains in flux. Current investment pipeline totals approximately $55 billion.
Rystad Energy reported that this figure includes a potential $23.5 billion sale of Santos as the company will accept offers and $17 for Lukoil’s upstream international assets.
National oil companies such as ADNOC and Saudi Aramco are expected to be the key buyers in future.
Oil price volatility and regional activity
Rystad’s data showed that in 2025 North America would be the main driver for activity. It will generate over $112 billion worth of deals, representing 66% of global deal values.
Africa’s deal value dropped by 57% on an annual basis to $6 billion. The energy intelligence agency in Norway reported that the value of Europe’s deals decreased by 24 percent year over year, to approximately $10 billion.
Middle East saw a significant drop of 65% to almost $4 billion. Oceania saw a 96% decline to $435 millions, while Russia suffered a 25% drop to $750,000,000.
The agency stated that “this overall global decline can be attributed primarily to the low and volatile oil price during 2025, which had a negative impact for a long time on the buyer-seller margin.”
Brent crude oil prices fluctuated significantly last year. Prices dropped from $79 per barrel in January to $65 by May.
The price of oil then climbed to $70 per barrel in July and June, but ended the year at $63 per barrel.
West Texas Intermediate prices (WTI), which were $75 per barrel in January, had dropped to $58 per barrel by December.
In Asia and South America, there is an increase in activity.
M&A activities increased exclusively in Asia, and South America. Asia saw a deal value increase of more than 3 times, to $18 billion. This was largely due to Eni’s joint venture with Petronas.
Argentine LNG transactions and Vaca Muerta focused deals drove the increase in South America deal values by 71% over last year to $18,3 billion.
Rystad stated that the global M&A in LNG will fall below last year’s numbers, but still expect a strong market.
At the moment, there are over 8,6 billion dollars worth of LNG infrastructure assets available to be purchased.
According to the agency, $8.6 billion does not include the sale of Santos after the ADNOC consortium withdrew its $23.6 billion offer.
Also available are $2.5 billion worth of upstream assets to supply LNG plants.
Energy Transfer, amongst other deals, is said to be considering selling an 80% share in the pre-Final Investment Decision Lake Charles LNG Project.
“In Argentina, YPF reportedly is seeking partners for Argentina LNG. Rystad stated that the US will likely continue to lead deal activity in terms of geography.
Saudi Aramco, ADNOC and other Middle Eastern NOCs are also expected to be active in the future, as they have already purchased LNG assets around the world and continue to show interest as buyers of key LNG opportunities.
The post Upstream Oil & Gas M&A to Cool in 2026 Despite $152B of Opportunities may be updated as new developments unfold.
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