Havana’s energy crisis did not start with new legislation or an announcement of a blockade; it intensified when Washington indicated it was prepared to punish countries who continue to provide fuel to Cuba.
This warning, in a world where banks, insurance companies, and ships move more quickly than diplomats and cargos are halted, was sufficient to tighten the credit and make the island scramble to keep its lights on and buses moving, as well as hospitals stocked.
Geopolitical partners like Russia are filling the gaps left by traditional oil suppliers. This is shifting Cuba’s oil connections rather than eliminating them.
Fast freeze and tariff threats
Instead of a clear, legislated extension of the embargo, what shocked people was threats of retaliation in trade, and tariffs against countries who supply Cuba with oil.
Kpler data shows that Mexico shipped a small shipment on 9 January, but after Trump announced tariffs against any country supplying fuel to Cuba, the flow ceased.
How “soft” Pressure can lead to real world disruption
The first thing that shipping firms, commodities traders, insurance companies and banks do is pause, as secondary penalty risk can be difficult to estimate and hard to accurately price.
The July 2025 Trump National Security Memorandum that tightened Cuba policy has also been widely interpreted as a move to increase extraterritorial exposure and deter third-country businesses from Cuba in all sectors including energy, fuel, and transportation.
Cuban buffer has a thin edge.
Analysts estimate Cuba only has 20 days worth of oil stored, so even a short gap in delivery can lead to emergency decisions.
What is causing Cuba to be so unable?
Cuba’s fuel shortage is a result of a failure in the system, and not just a problem within a particular sector.
Energy experts warn that diesel shortages will have “catastrophic” effects, as it is essential for passenger and freight transportation, railway, agriculture, and water distribution.
Cuba’s electricity system was already in fragile condition before the recent supply crisis.
Cuban crude oil and fuel imports fell 35% in the first ten months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. They dropped from 69.400 barrels a day to 45.400.
After Mexico and Venezuela cut shipments it was harder to reduce the daily power outages.
Imports from Venezuela, Cuba’s closest political ally fell by nearly 15%, to 27,400 bpd. This has squeezed fuel oil supply for electricity generation.
This macro-squeeze is quickly visible on the streets: less buses, more gasoline lines and longer blackouts.
Cuba took contingency actions, such as reducing the number of public transport routes, reducing the length of workweek to just four days, closing resorts and restricting gasoline sales only to those who could pay with dollars.
Continue reading: Caracas Chronicles from the Ground: Blackouts, Blasts and Empty Shelves
Rationing and human fallout
The grid’s failure to deliver reliable electricity and the diesel-powered logistics that it relies on will have knock-on effect in areas such as healthcare, education, and food distribution.
Cuba has postponed the annual cigar fair due to fuel shortages and blackouts. This is a sign of how even sectors that are important, such as hard currency, have been affected.
Cuban officials have described the tightening as collective punishment, while at the same time implementing triage measures in order to safeguard core services.
According to the Caribbean Council’s report, the memorandum for 2025 states that the proposed measures will “cause people suffering” and affect sensitive areas such as “fuel supply”, “electricity generation” and “food production”.
Finance and compliance are often the biggest obstacles for even suppliers that want to assist.
Cubans’ limited access to hard currency limits their ability to make purchases on the spot market, and counterparties are concerned that any trades could affect the US dollar or US markets.
What is the solution?
It is not that Cuba has ceased to demand products from some of the suppliers; rather, it’s simply that they have redirected their supply chains towards partners who are more willing or better insulated to accept Washington’s risks.
Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman told Reuters that Russia is in the process of discussing possible assistance.
It is true that the suffocating tactic of the United States has caused many problems for this country. With our Cuban colleagues, we are trying to find a solution to these issues or to at least provide the best possible help.
Replacement barrels, however, aren’t a quick fix.
Mexico, Venezuela, and Cuba all faced constraints in production, while Cuba was unable to afford fuel at the spot market.
Geopolitical resistance is growing as well in this region, because threats of tariffs can affect broader trading relationships.
Claudia Sheinbaum warned Mexico’s president that tariffs threatened against countries that provide Cuba with vital energy sources could cause a human disaster.
It is not clear whether this warning will change supplier behavior, but it has had a more immediate impact on Cuba’s attitude. This chilling effect encourages Cuba to rely even harder on its narrower circle.
Has the perception of compliance risk damaged trust permanently in Cuba fuel trade?
As new information becomes available, this post may change.
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