China’s combined trade surplus reached a new record in January and February, as both exports of goods and imports exceeded expectations. This shows the resilient nature of the second largest economy despite the ongoing tensions between the United States.
China’s trade surplus in the first half of 2026 was $213.62 Billion, exceeding economists expectations by about $196.6 Billion. This follows a record of 1.189 Trillion in 2025.
Chinese officials combine trade figures for February and January to reduce distortions due to the timing shift of Lunar New Year.
Exports were up and imports down, indicating a robust demand from abroad and steady consumption in the first quarter of this year.
Both exports and imports exceeded forecasts
China’s exports increased 21.8% in January and February, to $656.58 Billion.
Export growth has reached its highest level since October 20,21, and far exceeds the 7,1% expected by economists surveyed in Reuters’ survey.
This sharp rise also marked a notable acceleration from December’s 6.6% increase.
Imports rose 19.8% on an annual basis to $442.96 Billion.
This was the largest import growth since the early years of 2022.
This increase follows a rise of 5.7% in December.
Analysts say the strong trade performance is a reflection of a solid global economy and the start of the new year.
Some economists have noted that timing the Lunar New Year could have affected the growth rates year on year.
The US trade patterns are shifting away
China’s relationship with the United States has weakened despite the overall strong performance of the trade.
Data from the government showed that the trade deficit with the US fell 16.9%, to $609.71 billion ($88.22billion), compared to the same period last year.
Gleichzeitig, the trade volume with major trading partners increased significantly.
The trade volume with Europe increased 19.9%, reaching 998.94 billion Yuan. Meanwhile, the ASEAN region saw a 20.3% increase to 1.24 trillion Yuan.
These data come amid ongoing trade tensions between Washington, DC and Beijing.
Since January 2025 when US President Donald Trump took over the White House, the two countries are locked in a dispute about tariffs. Both sides have adjusted tariffs for each other’s products throughout the entire year.
The relationship improved after a meeting in Busan in South Korea in October between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping.
The impact of inflation on policy
China’s consumer price inflation has accelerated.
China’s Consumer Price Index rose by 1.3% compared to a year ago in February, surpassing economists’ predictions of a 0.8% rise.
This reading was the highest since January 2023, following a 0.2% rise in January.
These data coincided also with China’s “Two Sessions”, where Premier Li Qiang presented the country’s targets for economic growth.
Li, at the meeting, set the GDP growth range between 4.5% and 5%. This is the lowest target for growth since the 1990s.
Zhang stated that the combination of the modest target growth rate and the improved trade performance suggests that policymakers might not require additional stimuli in the near future.
While US tariffs remain in part on Chinese products, they are still being implemented.
The Supreme Court has ruled that some of the tariffs imposed by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act have been invalidated. However, the earlier tariffs imposed in Section 301 of Trade Act of 1964 and Section 232 of Trade Expansion Act of 1961 remain valid for certain products.
China Briefing reports that the tariff rates on Chinese goods exported to the United States are still close to 30%. This is among the highest of any other country.
As new information becomes available, this post China’s trade surplus hits record of $213B with exports surging 21.8% could be updated.
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