UBS Research analysts, Switzerland’s largest bank, say that the US economy has slowed down.
Fortune has released a report that shows the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the country’s total economic output, will grow at a much slower rate than in either of the two previous years. The growth annualized for the first half 2025 was just 1,2%.
UBS’ analysis points out that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a tepid report last week, which showed that total payroll employment in the non-farm sector increased by only 73,000 positions, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 100,00.
UBS analysts claim that “the drop in labor force participation has hidden how much actual slackening takes place.”
The data shows that immigration is slowing the growth of the labor force, but that’s not the case. Both the Household Survey and Establishment Survey indicate that the labor market has slowed down, and even the Household Survey estimates the population growth to be unchanged .”
UBS analysts believe that Donald Trump’s new tariffs could reduce growth by 0.1-0.2 percentage points over the coming year.
Bank of America predicts that the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates in September by 25 basis point. Analysts also note that rates may be reduced by as much as 100 basis points by the end the year.
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This article UBS issues warning, says US economy entering clear slowdown with Fed likely needing to act soon: report appeared first on The ICD.
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