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Portugal’s regulator ordered Polymarket halting and facing blocking over illegal political gambling.
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Before the results of the election, over EUR4M was invested in the markets for presidential elections, pushing total volume to EUR110M.
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Betting odds changed before public results aligned with early circulation of exit survey projections.
Portugal’s gambling regulator ordered that the cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket cease operations or face being blocked in the country. This was after activity related to the Portuguese presidential elections attracted regulatory scrutiny and raised concerns over the timing of large bet flows.
According to Renascenca’s reporting, the Servico de Regulacao e Inspecao de Jogos ruled that Polymarket was operating illegally in Portugal due to its lack of authorization and because Portuguese law prohibits betting on politics. The regulator stated that it notified the platform Friday and gave it 48-hours to cease operations aimed at Portuguese customers. The site was still accessible as of Monday. This prompted the SRIJ, to prepare network-level block measures.
Regulator Cites Legal Prohibitions
In a reply to Renascenca the SRIJ stated that it had become aware of Polymarket’very recently’ and classified its activities as illegal under Portuguese laws. The regulator stated that Polymarket is not licensed in Portugal to offer online betting and that wagering is prohibited on domestic or international political events.
The authority said that its powers were limited to supervising operators who are licensed and notifying unlicensed platforms of their intention to cease operating in Portugal. The SRIJ stated that there is no guarantee for Portuguese users to recover their funds if the platform is blocked.
Increase in betting before results
Increase in betting before results
The market for the presidential election at Polymarket saw a surge in trading just hours before the official results were announced. Renascenca reported more than EUR4million was invested in Portuguese Presidential markets shortly before the results became public. Total trading across related markets exceeded EUR110million.
Related: According to Polymarket, CFTC approval allows it intermediated access to US market operations
Market probabilities shifted quickly. Antonio Jose Seguro predicted chances increased from 60% earlier in day to approximately 95% an hour before polls close. They reached near certainty once projections were released. In the two-hour period before the first results of the election were announced, more than EUR5million was traded on multiple markets.
Exit Poll Timings and Market Movements
According to Renascenca, these moves were timed to coincide with the distribution of preliminary exit poll projections at around 6 p.m. These projections, which were not broadcast until after 8 p.m. but were shared with polling firms and TV journalists before the official release, showed that Seguro had a solid victory.
Before the first results were made public, the market prices on Polymarket already had converged to the final outcome. The SRIJ did not comment on whether they are examining trading patterns, but only confirmed that the platform was not authorized and their intention to block access to Portugal.
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