Lyn Alden, a macro-guru believes that global liquidity is likely to continue rising in 2025. However, it won’t rise as rapidly as in the past.
The analyst said in a recent interview with the Less Noise More Signal channel on YouTube that she expected global liquidity to increase more in 2022 than it had in 2017, but lower than 2021 or 2017.
Alden instead sees 2025 as a time of steady growth in liquidity, rather than an abrupt move.
I don’t expect a 2025 that is explosive. “I don’t really expect an explosive 2025.”
“I think 2025 will either continue to inch slowly up, or inflect more rapidly up. But I wouldn’t expect fireworks.”
Alden says so many debts are already fixed at lower rates than when rates were close to zero in 2020 or 2021. This means that the rate reduction now does not entice refinancing or investments like it would normally.
Rate cuts won’t help slow down the US economy in certain pockets. This is because so many debts are already fixed at low rates.
“And two, when you cut off the shorter end, often the longer end does not go up or down. This is what many people borrow, which is the longer part.”
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