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Analyst Dan Gambardello believes Cardano (ADA), via Bitcoin DeFi and airdrops, is on the verge of a major rally.
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Cardano’s ETF approval odds are 68% (Polymarket); Crypto Risk Model score of 24 (bullish)
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ADA consolidates near $0.70 (200 week EMA) (176 days); price $0.75, with a $0.58 dip possible.
Dan Gambardello, a well-known crypto expert and YouTuber, believes that Cardano (ADA), could be gearing up for a big rally. He believes that a powerful combination of market shifts on a large scale and new innovations on the blockchain are putting Cardano on the verge of a significant upswing, thanks to a number of major developments.
Integration of Bitcoin ordinals and Cardano is one of the most revolutionary developments. This marks a new stage where cross-chain DeFi is no longer theoretical, but operational.
Cardano now supports Bitcoin DeFi
Gambardello stated that Cardano has now become the base layer for Bitcoin DeFi. This could unlock trillions of dollars in dormant Bitcoin capital. Midnight airdrop is expected to bring in 37 million users to the Cardano eco-system, making it the largest airdrop ever.
Cardano DeFi infrastructure is being boosted by projects like Indigo and fluid tokens, which leverage Cardano’s low-fee architecture and security.
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Cardano’s Institutional and Regulatory Winds
The approval of a spot ETF for Cardano has been delayed, but is still being considered. This is similar to how regulators viewed Bitcoin and Ethereum during previous cycles. Gambardello stated that such delays were not bearish, but rather procedural.
Approval could come later in the summer. This would be a critical moment for ADA. Cardano, meanwhile, is being considered for the US strategic reserve and its recent Leios update claims to make it one of the fastest blockchains in the world.
Polymarket estimates that the probability of an ETF based on Cardano in 2025 is 68%. This has investors feeling optimistic.
ADA Risk Score Nears Bullish Zone (24); Near 200-Week EMA After 176-Day Consolidation
Cardano’s prices have remained relatively static, hovering at $0.75 as of press time, despite these bullish indicators. However, Dan Gambardello urges investors to adopt a macro view. According to the Crypto Capital Venture Risk Model ADA currently has a risk score 24. This level has been historically associated with Cardano’s pre-bull market accumulation zone.
Related: Hoskinson’s ADA Leads in Core Development Metrics
In previous cycles, major upward movements were preceded by similar risk scores. He argues that patience is not just a virtue, but also a strategy. The average consolidation period of ADA prior to breakouts in past cycles has been 179 days. Cardano is right on schedule to have a breakout as the current consolidation lasted 176.
Gambardello also noted that ADA was currently hovering around the 200-week moving average (EMA), a crucial level near $0.70, which often marks the lower limit of bull market entry zones.
On the daily chart of ADA, the 200-day MA has served as resistance, while the 50-day MA has offered some support. Before a breakout, a dip into the $0.58 to $0.65 range is possible. This is especially true if the bears continue to control the short-term bull/bear momentum indicator.
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