- Bitcoin again failed to hold an attempted move higher as Michaël van de Poppe linked the weakness to continued selling in STRC.
- PlanB said previous Bitcoin bear markets bottomed at a realized price below.
- Bitcoin’s realized price and 200-week geometric average sit near $53,000.
Bitcoin’s latest recovery attempt lost momentum as weakness in Strategy’s preferred security, STRC, added to broader concerns surrounding the company’s Bitcoin-linked capital structure.
Market analyst Michael van de Poppe said Bitcoin appeared close to breaking higher before the move stalled. He argued that STRC must recover quickly for confidence to return, while continued declines could deepen the negative narrative around Bitcoin and strategy.
STRC Weakness Clouds Bitcoin Rebound
STRC is one of Strategy’s preferred stock instruments and forms part of the company’s broader funding structure. Strategy has used common stock, preferred shares, and debt to finance its large Bitcoin treasury.
Van de Poppe’s argument centers on market confidence rather than a direct mechanical relationship. As STRC declines, investors may interpret the move as rising concern over the strategy’s financing model, dividend obligations, or continued exposure to Bitcoin volatility.
That concern matters as Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. Weakness in securities linked to the company can therefore influence sentiment across the wider crypto market, particularly when Bitcoin is already trading near important support.
Bitcoin has attempted several rebounds, but buyers have struggled to create sustained momentum. Until STRC stabilizes, van de Poppe expects volatility to stay elevated and confidence in a stronger BTC recovery to remain limited.
Related: Peter Schiff Flags Conflict Between Falling Gold and Resilient Stock Prices
PlanB Identifies $53,000 as Historical Support
Meanwhile, PlanB said Bitcoin could bottom below its realized price, currently estimated near $53,000.
Realized price measures the average value of all Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin last moved on-chain. It is often used as a proxy for the broader market’s aggregate cost basis.
Historically, Bitcoin has traded below the realized price during major bear-market bottoms. PlanB pointed to previous cycles where deep capitulation pushed BTC beneath that level before a long-term recovery developed.
His chart also shows realized price tracking closely with the 200-week geometric moving average since 2023. The convergence creates a closely watched support area near $53,000.
A decline toward that zone would represent another substantial fall from current levels. However, PlanB’s chart presents a historical comparison rather than a confirmed forecast.
Related: Bitcoin Could Hit $100K Again, but Analyst Forecasts Diverge on Timing
Two Signals Shape the Near-Term Outlook
On one hand, Van de Poppe is watching STRC as a sentiment signal tied to Strategy’s balance sheet and the confidence surrounding its Bitcoin accumulation model. On the other hand, PlanB is examining Bitcoin’s long-term on-chain valuation and historical bear-market behavior.
Together, the views frame the current market around two risks. One comes from corporate financing pressure linked to strategy, while the other comes from Bitcoin’s tendency to revisit its aggregate cost basis during severe corrections.
Bitcoin would need to hold its current support, produce stronger buying volume, and establish a higher high to weaken the bearish setup. Continued STRC losses, combined with another failed BTC rebound, would keep the realized-price region near $53,000 in focus.
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