Bitcoin is currently struggling to hold above $105,000 after rejecting support at $104,200. The latest daily structure shows BTC stuck in a corrective-flag formation, but the broader trend is still intact above key Fibonacci levels on higher timeframes.
What’s happening with Bitcoin’s price?
After the breakdown of the Bitcoin price below $106,000 on June 13, the price has been consolidating within a narrow range. Support is at $104,000 and resistance is at $106,000. BTC is currently at the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($105.485) and trying to form a new low above the 0.618 area near $104,291. The price action is neutral, but the latest candles indicate indecision.
The 4-hour chart shows BTC bounced within a micro channel, caught between demand near $103,150 and the resistance near $105,400. The volume profile shows that Bitcoin’s range has been between $104,200 to $105,800.
Cloud and EMA Cluster Resistance to Bitcoin Price Action
BTC is still struggling to stay above a critical confluence area formed by the 20/50/100 EMA bands and the Keltner Channel middle line on the 4-hour timeframe. The Bitcoin price is facing a supply between $105,800 to $106,300. This also aligns with flat Tenkan-Sens and Kijun Sens from the Ichimoku cloud.
The Stochastic RSI hovers near the overbought area (85-86) which indicates potential exhaustion. This rebound could be short lived unless BTC reclaims the $106,300.
The Bollinger Bands continue to contract, signaling a declining Bitcoin volatility. This setup increases the probability of a breakout move or breakdown in the coming sessions.
Why is the Bitcoin price going down today?
Bitcoin’s price is slightly lower as the market reacts to resistance overhead at $105,800, and weak demand around $106,000. The MACD on 30-minute chart is now bearish, while RSI indicates a short-term rollover back from the 52-53 range to 45.
The Directional Movement Index (DMI), on the 30-minute chart, indicates a weak trend strength. The +DI, -DI, and ADX lines are crossing often. ADX is also below 25, indicating a lack of a clear trend direction. Traders remain cautious as they head into the weekend, despite Bitcoin’s price spikes being quickly sold off.
If BTC fails in the next 12-24 hour to close above $106,000, the chances of a return to $103,000 or $104,000 are increased.
Short-Term Outlook: Will BTC Retest $107K, or will it slide towards $102K?
BTC is forming a symmetrical triangular price structure, with a possible breakout point near $105,400. If bulls are able to push past this level, with volume confirmation, then the next upside target is $107,000, followed closely by $108,150.
If however, $104,200 is not held, the price could drop to $103,150 then to $101,200. The latter is a volume-supported zone of demand that could serve as a springboard, if tested again.
On the higher timeframes, Bitcoin is still above its key bullish break-out line near $100.400 (Fib.1.0 level), which will remain a strong macrosupport unless sentiment deteriorates dramatically.
Bitcoin Forecast Table: June 16 2025
|
Indicator |
Value/ Signal |
|
Bitcoin price today |
$105,140 |
| Key Resistance | $106,000 / $107,000 / $108,150 |
| Key Support | $104,200 / $103,150 / $101,200 |
| RSI (30 min) | 45.2 (bearish tilt) |
| MACD (30-min). | Bearish crossover |
| Stochastic RSI | Overbought (85-86) |
| DMI | Low ADX indicates a weak trend |
| Bollinger Width | Contracting – Breakout likely |
| Fib Levels (Daily) | 0.5: $105,485 / 0.618: $104,291 / 0.786: $102,590 |
Bitcoin is still at a critical decision point. Bulls need to reclaim $106,000 – $106,300 with conviction in order to change the trend upward. The broader bias is neutral until then. If momentum stalls, downside risk could reach $103,000.
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