The search for effective Alzheimer’s treatment is a market that is attracting the attention of both major pharmaceutical companies and investors.
Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that Alzheimer’s treatments could reach $13 billion in 2030. The stakes are high.
Leading companies such as Biogen, Eli Lilly & Co. Novo Nordisk A/S Roche AG and UCB SA invest heavily in research and developement to unlock breakthroughs which could transform the industry.
The potential of the market is similar to that of the recent obesity-drug explosion, when effective treatments reshaped public narratives about health and drove valuations for companies like Novo Nordisk or Eli Lilly.
Chris Eccles is the portfolio manager of AXA Investment Managers.
“If we have a powerful disease-modifying drug, and very positive clinical trial results, numbers can be re-inserted into models, and forecasts can quickly and significantly be revised upwards.”
Bloomberg reports that the road to success can be difficult, with high-profile failures as well as regulatory hurdles.
Biogen, for instance, has seen dramatic stock price swings due to mixed results with its Alzheimer’s drug.
There are drugs from Biogen and Eli Lily, but they come with side effects
Currently, there are two FDA-approved medications available on the US market: Leqembi (from Biogen with its Japanese partner Eisai), and Kisunla from Eli Lilly.
These drugs slow the progression of Alzheimer’s by targeting the amyloid plaques that are present in the brain.
They are a step forward but they do not reverse the disease. They also have severe side effects such as brain swelling and bleeding.
“It may be a year in which we see more clarity on the drugs that have been approved,” said Gregoire Biollaz. Senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management.
Biogen and Eisai
Biogen and Eisai have placed their bets on the development of a home-injectable version of Leqembi, which will make treatment more accessible.
Investors will be looking out for regulatory approval in 2025. This will mean that patients won’t have to travel for their treatment.
BioArctic, a Swedish company, also discovered Leqembi, and receives royalties on its sales.
Its shares have risen more than eightfold in value since it went public in 2017. However, they have struggled over the past few years due to a difficult launch of the treatment.
Eli Lilly
Kisunla, a drug developed by Eli Lilly, received FDA approval on July 20, 2024. In 2025, we will see how it competes with Leqembi on the US market.
The company is also developing remternetug – a next generation Alzheimer’s treatment that’s being tested both as an infusion and injection.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts believe that the late-stage trial could indicate whether remternetug is a better option for treatment than Kisunla.
According to Jean Rivera Irizarry, BI’s Director of Research and Development, the results of the remternetug trials could be released by the end this year or in early 2026.
Novo Nordisk
Novo Nordisk, the leader in diabetes and weight loss drugs, is investigating whether its blockbuster semaglutide drug could reduce Alzheimer’s disease risk.
Early studies show promising results. A pivotal late-stage study is expected to produce data in the second half 2025.
Bank of America analysts suggested that a positive result could boost Novo Nordisk’s stock by 10-15%.
They also warn that Alzheimer’s disease research is high-risk.
Roche
Roche has developed trontinemab using its brain shuttle technology. This drug is designed to remove amyloid plaques from the brain by crossing the blood-brain barriers.
Analyst Colin White of UBS Group AG believes that the company will have more data available in the first quarter before it decides whether to move forward with late-stage clinical trials.
This comes after Roche’s disappointment with gantenerumab which failed to meet expectations.
UCB’s cautious optimistic
UCB SA, based in Belgium, is evaluating if it will proceed with its bepranemab drug after a mixed midstage study that was completed in 2024.
The primary endpoint of the trial was not met, but the drug did slow cognitive decline and reduce the accumulation tau protein in the brain cells.
Stacy Ku, an analyst at TD Cowen, believes that bepranemab has a clean safety profile. This is especially important for potential combination therapies.
This post Could Alzheimer’s treatment drugs be next big investment opportunity after obesity pills. This post may be updated as new information unfolds
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