US Treasury yields climbed on Thursday after President Donald Trump said the conflict with Iran could last two to three weeks and that American forces would strike the country “extremely hard” to destroy its military capability.
The remarks, which came a day after Trump addressed the nation, pushed investors to reassess the duration of the conflict and its implications for inflation, growth, and Federal Reserve policy.
Yields rise across the curve
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5.3 basis points to 4.372%, while the 30-year bond yield climbed by the same margin to 4.953%.
The 2-year note yield added 4.3 basis points to reach 3.849%.
The moves extended a sell-off that began on Tuesday as markets digested geopolitical developments alongside key labour-market data. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
Stocks give back gains
US stock futures fell on Thursday, unwinding a portion of the previous session’s rally.
Futures pointed to an opening decline of around 1% for both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The reversal came as Trump outlined his most detailed position yet on the Iran conflict, damping the brief optimism that had lifted equities on Wednesday.
Jobs data disappoints
Payrolls processor ADP reported that private businesses added 62,000 jobs in March, topping economists’ expectations of roughly 39,000.
The February figure was also revised higher to around 66,000, suggesting the labour market remains more resilient than previously thought, even as hiring momentum has cooled compared with earlier in the year.
While the data points to a gradual slowdown rather than a sharp deterioration, it adds to uncertainty heading into Friday’s official non-farm payrolls report, which will provide a broader snapshot of labour-market conditions.
Friday’s payrolls report is the immediate focus, with markets watching for any sign that the Iran conflict and elevated energy costs are beginning to weigh on hiring.
Beyond the near term, the trajectory of Treasury yields will hinge on how long the conflict persists and whether inflation pressures — already elevated by the surge in oil prices — prompt the Federal Reserve to hold rates higher for longer.
Any ceasefire signal or de-escalation would be likely to trigger a sharp rally in Treasuries.
This post US treasury yields rise as Trump warns of extended Iran campaign may be modified as updates unfold
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