The Romanian presidential elections of 2025 are not normal. This is a repeat of the election that was annulled in December 2024 due to Russian meddling.
The story is getting even more dramatic. Only a week before, the candidate of the extreme right won the first round. The prime minister also resigned. And Romania’s currency fell to its lowest point in history.
Romanians will have to choose by the end of the week between two men who answer the same question in completely different ways: What should Romania be?
It’s not about the personalities. This runoff is not about personalities. It’s all about Europe, NATO and Ukraine. Romania’s future as a reliable ally is at stake.
This election is Different
The presidential elections in 2025 will be unlike anything else before. First time since the end of the communist period, no candidate is from one of the traditional ruling parties.
George Simion is the frontrunner of AUR, an ultranationalist party.
In the first round, he won with 41% of the votes cast on the 4th May. This was a result that was largely supported by rural voters as well as the Romanian diaspora.
Nicusor, Dan is an independent reformer who supports Europe and is the Mayor of Bucharest. With just 21%, he barely reached the final round.
It wasn’t a simple election. This election triggered an entire political collapse.
The ruling coalition in Romania, consisting of Social Democrats, Liberals and the ethnically Hungarian UDMR party, has collapsed since their candidate Crin Antonioescu did not make it to the second round. The same night, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu announced his resignation.
The stakes have never been higher. With no one party in charge and with a president that can influence foreign policy and defence and even veto EU decision, there is no way to predict the outcome.
What are the possible candidates?
George Simion, 38 years old. George Simion is 38.
He campaigns for Romanian sovereignty and wears MAGA caps. Melonisation is his goal, a nod to Giorgia Meloni of Italy, who went from being a populist to becoming prime minister.
Simion is against sending arms to Ukraine. Simion says Romania needs to focus on their own interests. He argued in a recent debate on television that Romania should remain “neutral”, and the EU’s protection should come from NATO.
The Romanian leader also stated that Romania should receive compensation for the help it has provided to Ukraine, which includes donating a Patriot missile systems.
Nicusor Daniel, 55, has a PhD in mathematics from Sorbonne.
Before becoming the mayor of Bucharest, he made his name fighting against corruption in real-estate. Dan is in favor of the EU plan to raise joint military expenditures and supports Ukraine. Dan says that Europe must be prepared in the event of the US pulling out its support.
The Liberals, UDMR and other minor parties have backed him. Social Democrats are neutral.
What is really at stake here?
Romania shares a border and is an important NATO member along the Black Sea. Romania has been a key player in the export of Ukrainian grain as well as training Ukrainian pilots.
Simion’s election may change that. He said that he will veto future EU plans for sending arms to Ukraine.
Analysts believe that this will isolate Romania and weaken the support of Ukraine. It could also shift the balance within the EU.
Romania has already the highest deficit budget in Europe, around 9% GDP. Investors have become nervous.
The leu fell to historic lows after Simion won the first round. To stabilize the leu, EUR1 billion was needed by the central bank.
Dan says Simion’s policies are harmful for the economy. Simion has made promises that include nationalizing key industries, cutting taxes and building subsidized housing, but without a clear plan for funding.
Dan claims that if elected, he would reduce state spending, clamp down on tax fraud, and unlock EU funds.
What is the current voter sentiment?
Recent polls indicate that the race has been tied. AtlasIntel’s survey shows both candidates with 48.2%. CURS gives Simion the slight advantage at 52%.
There is a wildcard. In the first round, nearly one million Romanians living abroad cast their votes.
Over 60% supported Simion. Dan is most popular in America and Canada but these regions have fewer votes.
Simion is appealing to the frustration of old-school politicians. Ses supporters claim that Romania is being ignored by Brussels, and must put itself first. His supporters say he connects to voters in small towns and villages as well as religious communities.
Dan is a city boy: educated and middle class, pro-European.
It is crucial that he convinces millions of people who supported other candidates during the first round to vote for him.
Can Romania change the balance of Europe?
The election doesn’t happen in a vacuum. Simion is expected to work with Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Slovakia’s Robert Fico, to block or slow down EU decisions regarding Ukraine, defence, and the rule of law.
The Kremlin’s ideologue, Alexandr Dugin, called Simion’s ascent a “chance for Russia”.
The fear in Washington and Brussels has been heightened by Simion’s close ties with Calin Georgescu. Calin is a pro-Russian figure who was disqualified from office in 2024. Simion, according to some reports, wants Calin to be appointed Prime Minister.
Simion, meanwhile, is trying to soften up his image. Simion has promised to cooperate with NATO, and investors have been reassured that he is in favor of market reforms. It’s unclear whether this is a genuine campaign or merely a tactic.
Dan presents himself, however, as the dependable choice. Romania needs to prove that it is a trustworthy partner for the EU and NATO, he says. The country’s economy, security and credibility are at stake, he says.
The country’s future will be decided on May 18. The two futures are clearly opposite.
Both men promise change. Only one man has an idea of how Romania can become a part of Europe’s mainstream. One asks voters to make a big leap into unknown.
The post Two Men, One Turning Point: Romania Heads into the 2025 Presidential Election, Seen as a major political Test may be updated as new developments unfold.
