On Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecasts of global oil demand growth for 2024-2025 for the fourth month in a row.
According to the November Oil Market Report, the forecast for China, India and other countries from Asia, Africa and Eurasia was further revised downwards this month.
OPEC has revised its forecasts of growth in global demand due to concerns about oversupply on the market.
The global demand for crude oil remained low in October as China, the top importer of crude, continued to import crude at a lower level than a year ago.
According to secondary sources, the report states that OPEC crude oil production increased in October while the output from the cartel’s ten allies decreased.
OPEC lowers its demand forecasts
OPEC reduced its forecasts of global oil demand growth by 107,000 barrels a day in 2024 on Tuesday.
The demand for oil is expected to grow by an average of 1.8 million barrels a day in the coming year.
In the report, the cartel stated:
The total world oil demand in 2024 is expected to reach 104.0 mb/d, boosted by strong transportation fuel consumption and continued healthy economic growth in a number non-OECD nations.
The cartel has revised its estimate of growth in the global oil demand for 2025 by 103,000 barrels a day. The cartel expects the demand to increase by 1.5 million barrels a day in 2019.
The majority of demand growth will occur in countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Demand is expected to increase by 1.4 millions barrels per day in non-OECD nations next year.
Oil demand in OECD nations is only expected to increase by 100,000 barrels a day, on an annual basis.
OPEC stated that the demand for oil in non-OECD countries is expected to be dominated by China, with support from the Middle East, India and Latin America.
The growth is expected to benefit from strong demand for air travel and a healthy road network, including trucking and on-road diesel, as well healthy industrial, agricultural, and construction activities in non-OECD nations.
Non-OPEC Supply Growth
The cartel’s forecasts on the growth of oil supplies from countries outside the OPEC+ Alliance remained unchanged from those made last month.
OPEC anticipates that the supply of oil from non-member countries will increase by 1.2 millions barrels per day by 2024.
The oil supply of non-OPEC nations is expected to increase by 1.1 millions barrels per day in the next year.
OPEC has noted:
The US, Brazil and Canada are expected to drive the growth.
US Energy Information Administration data showed that US production was near record levels during the week ending November 1.
During the reporting period, the production in the country was 13,5 million barrels of oil per day.
OPEC October production increases
The data shows that OPEC members who are permanent produced 26,54 million barrels of oil per day last month. This is an increase of 466,000 barrels.
In Libya, production increased the most after a political dispute was settled. In October, production rose by 556,000 barrels a day.
Saudi Arabia, de facto leader in the group, produced crude oil at a rate of 8.97 million barrels a day last month. This was a steady increase from the previous months.
The data revealed that among its allies, Kazakhstan’s production dropped by 292,000 barrels a day in October, to 1,29 million barrels a day.
OPEC+ produced 40.34 millions barrels of crude oil per day in October, an increase of 215,000 barrels a day over the previous month.
OPEC+ agreed last week to extend their voluntary production cuts of 2.2 millions barrels per day for another month, until the end of December.
Oil prices are still weak at around $70 per barrel.
The fear that crude oil would continue to flood the market also affected sentiment.
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