This Tuesday’s debate between former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to have a major impact on the election of 2024.
Both candidates are under immense pressure as the race is currently in a dead heat. They need to convince undecided votes and consolidate their base.
The contest is taking place at a crucial time, as the country remains divided and voter interest high.
Harris makes gains, but Trump is still competitive
Harris has gained popularity in recent polls, but it’s not enough to put her ahead of Trump.
A New York Times/Siena College survey released on Sunday shows that Trump has a 2-point advantage over Harris. Harris still maintains an average national lead of between 1-3%.
Harris’ lead is less significant when compared to the final outcome of the election because Republicans have an advantage over Democrats in the Electoral College.
This race is very similar to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 narrow victory over Biden in the popular vote, as opposed Biden’s win of 2020 when he won both the Electoral College and popular vote.
Battleground States in Play
In a few battleground states, the 2024 elections will be decided.
Seven key states, according to the polling averages of RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight as well as Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin are only 3 points apart.
According to Silver Bulletin, Harris has a lead of 2.7 points in Wisconsin. Trump holds a 2 point advantage in Arizona.
The narrow margins show a divided electorate, and the debate on Tuesday is important.
Both candidates must appeal to voters, especially in states that could decide the future president.
Harris’s favorability and potential for growth
Since she joined the Democratic Party, Kamala Harris’ favorability has steadily increased.
Recent polls show that her popularity has risen to 48 per cent.
Harris, while not as popular as Trump (whose popularity remains at around 44%), is more liked in general.
Harris has a lot to gain from the debate. Polls indicate that 29% of voters feel like they don’t know enough about Harris.
Harris’s strong performance in the debate could help her appeal to voters who are undecided and uncertain.
Voter share of third-party parties declines
Early in the cycle of the elections, polling showed that a large number of voters were considering third-party alternatives.
Recent developments, however, have dramatically reduced the likelihood of this happening. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is no longer a viable candidate in the polls.
The decline of third party interest in the race has led to it becoming a two-party affair.
A recent New York Times/Siena College survey found that the Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver received 2 percent while Jill Stein, of the Green Party, only got 1 percent. The reduction of third-party votes helps focus attention on the major candidates.
Voter enthusiasm: A tight race
The candidates also share a similar level of enthusiasm when it comes to the voters. Harris and Trump both enjoy a similar level of enthusiasm.
New York Times/Siena survey shows that 72 percent Democrats consider themselves “very enthusiastic,” as opposed to only 69 percent Republicans.
Also, Harris voters reported that 63 percent and Trump voters reported being “almost sure” of their vote.
The parity of voter enthusiasm indicates that the turnout is crucial, and neither candidate cannot afford to lose their momentum.
Trump’s economic advantage
Trump has a clear advantage in this area. According to the Wall Street Journal’s latest poll, 51% of voters think Trump has the best skills to manage the economy, while only 43% prefer Harris.
Harris has made a small improvement, but Trump still holds the advantage in economic matters.
In the final weeks of her campaign, Harris will focus on narrowing the gap. Biden and Trump had the same level of confidence in 2020 when it came to economics. Each candidate received 49 percent.
Harris hopes to narrow the 8-point deficit, especially in states that are considered battlegrounds where economic issues dominate.
Americans’ opinions on America’s direction
The dissatisfaction of Americans with the current direction of their country has been a constant theme in this election. Only 25 percent of Americans believed that the United States was heading in the right direction on June 27. The other 65 percent said it was going the wrong way.
The figures are slightly better, as 27 percent of respondents now feel positive about the trajectory of the country, while 63 remain pessimistic.
Interesting, the majority of Harris voters (56%) believe that the country is heading in the right directions, but nearly 90% of Trump supporters feel otherwise.
More than one-quarter of Harris’ voters (28%) still believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction. This suggests she has the support of voters who are frustrated by the state of the world but do not want to vote for Trump.
What’s the impact of this debate and why is it important?
Both Trump and Harris face risks and opportunities in the upcoming debate. It’s an opportunity for Harris to cement her growing popularity, and reach voters who are still undecided about her or don’t know her.
Trump can use this opportunity to gain momentum and re-shape the narrative in his favor.
The race is still too close to call, even though Harris’s gains are encouraging. And the Republican advantage in the Electoral College adds yet another level of complexity.
The race for the top spot is razor thin. Both candidates must perform well on Tuesday.
The ICD published the article Kamala Harris and Donald Trump: What you need to know before a crucial debate.
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